Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.3median
140230
Median 189.3Middle half 176.6 – 200.9
Install
What countries will Trump visit in 2026?
The odds
15%Japan
- Japan15%▲ 1
- Saudi Arabia14%▼ 1
- Germany13%
- Israel9%▲ 1
- Cuba8%
- Venezuela8%
- India7%
- North Korea7%
- Norway7%▲ 1
- Denmark6%
- Qatar6%
- Russia6%
10 more
- Italy6%
- Vatican City6%
- Mexico5%
- Pakistan5%
- Poland4%
- Hungary4%
- Palestine4%
- Canada4%
- Ukraine3%
- Taiwan2%
How the odds have moved
Japan: 15% on Oct 20, 15% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 15% | ▲ 1 | 14¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 48.9K |
| Saudi Arabia | 14% | ▼ 1 | 13¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 29.0K |
| Germany | 13% | 12¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 29.0K | |
| Israel | 9% | ▲ 1 | 8¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 55.4K |
| Cuba | 8% | 7¢ | 9¢ | $11.24 | 51.8K | |
| Venezuela | 8% | 7¢ | 9¢ | $11.49 | 30.5K | |
| India | 7% | 6¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 16.1K | |
| North Korea | 7% | 7¢ | 7¢ | $14.08 | 51.6K | |
| Norway | 7% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 1.0K |
| Denmark | 6% | 5¢ | 8¢ | $12.99 | 14.2K | |
| Qatar | 6% | 4¢ | 9¢ | $11.76 | 8.3K | |
| Russia | 6% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $15.63 | 24.1K | |
| Italy | 6% | 6¢ | 6¢ | $16.95 | 11.1K | |
| Vatican City | 6% | 5¢ | 7¢ | $14.93 | 6.5K | |
| Mexico | 5% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $18.18 | 13.1K | |
| Pakistan | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 16.0K | |
| Poland | 4% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $13.89 | 7.4K | |
| Hungary | 4% | 4¢ | 4¢ | $26.32 | 14.1K | |
| Palestine | 4% | 4¢ | 4¢ | $27.78 | 9.7K | |
| Canada | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $27.78 | 13.0K | |
| Ukraine | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.64 | 17.5K | |
| Taiwan | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $40.00 | 42.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Saudi Arabia
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WATCH: WWE Crown Jewel Stadium Construction Underway in Saudi Arabia Amid Security ConcernsConstruction of the Riyadh Season Stadium for WWE Crown Jewel is underway despite regional security worries. The 2026 WWE Crown Jewel Premium Live Event is scheduled for KAFD, Saudi Arabia, on Saturday, November 7, 2026. As they did for… -
Oil little changed as supply concern lingers amid Houthi attacks on Saudi ArabiaOil prices were little changed in early Asian trade on Friday, after rising 4% to a five-month high in the previous session due to concern of further energy supply disruption after Houthi attacks on top exporter Saudi Arabia. Brent crude… -
U.S. orders some diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia amid Houthi attacksThe Washington Post The ordered departure of nonemergency staff members comes after the rebel group “increasingly engaged in hostilities against Saudi Arabia," the State Department said. The State Department has ordered nonemergency U.S… -
Meghan Markle’s Father Child Sex Images Claim, Paris NFL Game Warning, US Diplomats to Leave Saudi Arabia: The Bulletin, Oct. 23Meghan Markle has said she is "deeply distressed" by reports that her father, Thomas Markle Sr., is being investigated over child sex abuse images and that p... - Global Iran WarRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaLive BlogBetter… -
UFC Saudi Arabia Adds Banger Fight to Support Israel Adesanya Main EventA pair of promising welterweight contenders are set to meet at UFC Saudi Arabia following big finishes in their respective UFC debuts. The Middle East is set to host several events during the final few months of the UFC’s 2026 schedule… -
Two killed in Houthi attack on airport in eastern Saudi Arabia, authorities sayYemen's Houthi movement has said it carried out an attack on an airport in eastern Saudi Arabia on Wednesday evening, which Saudi authorities said killed two people and injured eight others. The Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation… -
Two killed in attack on airport in eastern Saudi Arabia, authorities sayDammam is the largest city in Saudi Arabia's oil-rich Eastern Province Two people were killed and eight others injured in an attack on an airport in Dammam. eastern Saudi Arabia on Wednesday evening, the kingdom's General Authority of… -
State Department orders nonessential employees to leave Saudi Arabia amid Houthi attacksThe order follows a security alert from the U.S. embassy in Riyadh about the potential for further attacks by Iranian-backed Houthis. Buildings and construction sites fill the skyline in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Oct. 14, 2026. | Baraa… -
US orders some diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks escalateThe US State Department has ordered some diplomats and their families to leave Saudi Arabia as attacks escalate, with three people killed in strikes across the country. Saudi authorities said debris from a drone intercepted during an… -
U.S. pulls diplomats from Saudi Arabia as it reportedly readies Iran strikes after midtermsThe U.S. ordered non-emergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks on the kingdom escalate. The move comes as the U.S. and Israeli militaries have drawn up specific plans for renewed strikes on… -
US State Department orders some staff to leave Saudi Arabia as attacks escalateYemen's Iran-backed Houthis also attacked the airport in Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh earlier this month The US State Department has ordered some diplomats and their families to leave Saudi Arabia as attacks escalate, with three people… -
Some US diplomats told to leave Saudi Arabia amid Houthi attacksReports emerge of similar withdrawals in UAE, Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain amid concerns about a return to conflict with Iran after US midterm elections The US state department has ordered some diplomats and the families of US government…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions