Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2%chance
Install
Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch?
The odds
85%Before Dec 1, 2026
- Before Dec 1, 202685%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202786%▼ 4
- Before Apr 1, 202791%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Dec 1, 2026: 34% on Oct 20, 85% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 23, 11 PM ETBefore Dec 1, 2026: 78% → 84%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 85% | ▲ 1 | 83¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 1.6K |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 86% | ▼ 4 | 82¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 13.6K |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 91% | ▼ 1 | 86¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: United States Triumphal Arch, Washington
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Get unlimited access toThe Washington PostBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. - Opinion Fareed… -
Washington state mom speaks up for girlsFox News Washington state mom speaks up for girls Sarah Burns, whose daughter walked off the starting line in protest of having to race a boy in a cross country meet, dons an XX-XY Athletics shirt at rally in Camas, Wash. -
Where Does Mike Sainristil Fit in the Washington Commanders Defense Now?Mike Sainristil played seven snaps against the 49ers. His coverage struggles and Trey Amos’ return complicate his role in Washington’s defense after the bye. -
Trump channels George Washington in the fight to deport Mahmoud KhalilMahmoud Khalil wants to take the case against his deportation all the way to the Supreme Court. If the justices accept it, they’ll be deciding one of the oldest and most controversial questions in American politics — a dispute more than… -
CFR: Washington sees friends and enemies; Beijing sees vendors and customersCouncil on Foreign Relations' Zongyuan Zoe Liu says that a Plaza Accord-style agreement to strengthen the renminbi would be unlikely to succeed, as neither currency appreciation nor tariffs can dismantle China's dominance of global… -
Commanders News: ESPN Proposes Andrew Wylie Trade; Myles Garrett Could Face Washington | Burgundy RoundupWashington Commanders rookie Drew Stevens already held the franchise’s rookie record for the longest field goal before Monday night against San Francisco. His 51-yarder in the first quarter brought him to three makes from 50-plus yards… -
No. 21 Boise State is heavily favored against Washington State. Will it be that simple?No. 21 Boise State is back in action this weekend with a Pac-12 road trip to Washington State. Kickoff between the Broncos (5-1, 2-0) and Cougars (1-6, 0-3) is scheduled for 4 p.m. Mountain time at Martin Stadium. The game will air live… -
Washington Has 13 Days Between Games Before Eagles Rematch. They Can't Waste Them - Commanders DailyCommanders Daily | Philip Hughes | HTTR4LIFE LLC Where Does Mike Sainristil Fit in the Washington Commanders Defense Now? Washington's 2024 Third-Round Pick Faces Make-Or-Break Moment Following Terry McLaurin Injury - Commanders Daily… -
Washington parents find their courage as girls walk off cross country course in protest of trans runnerAmy Sousa leads the charge at a protect women's sports rally in Camas, Wash., where a boy switched to the girls cross country team midseason. CAMAS, Wash. — The sign seemed innocuous enough. So did the man holding it. But a passing jogger… -
Washington Post journalist says attack by Israeli West Bank settlers has only ‘strengthened’ her resolveHeidi Levine, the Washington Post journalist brutally attacked by Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank last week, said the terrifying ordeal has only strengthened her resolve to continue covering the plight of Palestinians. “What… -
Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 21 Washington Huskies Game Thread: Another ranked opportunity on the scheduleFresh off a two-win week over the Maryland Terrapins and the Iowa Hawkeyes, the Wisconsin Badgers are taking on the No. 21 Washington Huskies at the Field House on Friday evening. First serve is set for 8:00 p.m. on Big Ten Network… -
Washington Post: Hegseth’s staff damaged historic Eisenhower globe during move | CNN PoliticsThe Washington Post reports that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s staff didn't follow the process typically overseen by trained curators and dropped a historic globe used by Dwight D. Eisenhower during World War II while moving it to…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.