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Will the Treasury purchase Bitcoin? (Before Jan 1, 2028)
The odds
14%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Jan 1, 20274%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202814%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 5% on Oct 19, 4% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 1.3K |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 14% | ▲ 1 | 12¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 309 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Bitcoin, Treasury
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Crypto Treasury Management: Bitcoin Lending's Next PhaseOn October 23, 2026, Silicon Valley Bank / First Citizens Innovation published a report that marks a structural shift in crypto treasury management: Bitcoin-backed lending has matured into a collateralized, transparent institutional… -
Hong Kong Firm Ming Shing Bets $483M on Bitcoin TreasuryCoinMarketCap Hong Kong Firm Ming Shing Bets $483M on Bitcoin Treasury Hong Kong construction firm Ming Shing Group Holdings struck a $483 million agreement to acquire 4,250 Bitcoin through share issuance rather than cash payment. Hong… -
Health Brief: Making sense of Treasury’s biotech deal proposalPharma sees a potential catch in Washington’s latest effort to curb China’s biotech ambitions Happy Friday, and welcome to Health Brief. Calley Means, a key member of the Make America Healthy Again movement, announced he would be leaving… -
Bitcoin ETFs Snap Two-Week Losing Streak Despite Late-Week SlideBitcoin ETFs ended a choppy week in the green, but only just. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $137.9 million on Friday, according to Decrypt’s ETF tracker, their second straight day of outflows. The two-day slide totaled about $773.5 million… -
Bitcoin price news: BTC falls below $80,000 on renewed Middle East worriesThe U.S. is quickly evacuating personnel from embassies and military bases throughout the Middle East as intelligence suggests Iran is prepping attacks against Americans, the WSJ reported Saturday morning. “Iran has substantially increased… -
Why investors are moving back into TreasurysU.S. Treasurys are returning to favor as a safe haven play that sidesteps investors' worries over a shaky economy and the future of the data center build-out. -
Treasury proposes major restrictions to U.S. investment in Chinese biotech sectorBy John Wilkerson and Damian Garde WASHINGTON — The Trump administration late on Thursday proposed a rule that would severely restrict future U.S. investment in the Chinese biotech sector but still allow American drugmakers to buy the… -
Musk’s SpaceX-Tesla Merger Would Create a Bitcoin Treasury BehemothElon Musk’s floated merger of SpaceX and Tesla would do more than unite rockets and electric cars. It would fold two of the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin stashes onto a single balance sheet. Speaking on SpaceX’s third-quarter earnings… -
US Treasurys gained in investors’ flight to safetyMarkets have grown worried that Big Tech firms will not make sufficient money to cover their ballooning investments and are running into supply-chain bottlenecks. US Treasurys gained in investors’ flight to safety US Treasurys gained in… -
Strategy (MSTR), Strive (ASST) must balance bitcoin (BTC) purchases, preferred stock dividendsBitcoin BTC$84,459.46 treasury companies like Strategy (MSTR) and Strive (ASST), whose purchases help maintain demand for the largest cryptocurrency, have a tough balancing act, according to Fidelity Digital Assets and analysts who spoke… -
Bitcoin’s wealthy holders are moving from trading to private banking, Xapo CEO saysWealthy bitcoin BTC$84,459.46 holders are increasingly treating their cryptocurrency as an asset to borrow against and generate income from, marking a shift from speculation toward private banking, according to Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca… -
Treasury proposes curbs on high-tech investments in China, Russia, North Koreaby Ryan Mancini 10/22/26 10:37 PM ET The Treasury Department on Thursday proposed a rule to curb American high-tech investments, including AI, outbound to U.S. adversaries like China, Russia, North Korea and other “countries of concern.”…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions