Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
99%chance
Install
Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain? (Before 2027)
The odds
10%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 5% on Oct 19, 10% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 7¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 13.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Treasury
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Why investors are moving back into TreasurysU.S. Treasurys are returning to favor as a safe haven play that sidesteps investors' worries over a shaky economy and the future of the data center build-out. -
Treasury proposes major restrictions to U.S. investment in Chinese biotech sectorBy John Wilkerson and Damian Garde WASHINGTON — The Trump administration late on Thursday proposed a rule that would severely restrict future U.S. investment in the Chinese biotech sector but still allow American drugmakers to buy the… -
US Treasurys gained in investors’ flight to safetyMarkets have grown worried that Big Tech firms will not make sufficient money to cover their ballooning investments and are running into supply-chain bottlenecks. US Treasurys gained in investors’ flight to safety US Treasurys gained in… -
Treasury proposes curbs on high-tech investments in China, Russia, North Koreaby Ryan Mancini 10/22/26 10:37 PM ET The Treasury Department on Thursday proposed a rule to curb American high-tech investments, including AI, outbound to U.S. adversaries like China, Russia, North Korea and other “countries of concern.”… -
US Treasury Secretary Bessent dismisses AI bubble fearsBessent shrugged off the possibility of “systemic” economic risks stemming from the AI boom. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday dismissed the possibility of âsystemicâ economic risks stemming from the AI boom, the… -
Democrats gear up for offensive against Trump’s TreasuryIf they take control of Congress, Democrats on tax-writing and financial oversight panels plan to target the president’s alleged self-dealing, setting up a showdown with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. If Democrats take back power in… -
Will the Treasury restrict U.S. investment in the Chinese biotech sector?STAT is a media company focused on finding and telling compelling stories about health, medicine, and scientific discovery. We produce daily news, investigative articles, and narrative projects in addition to multimedia features, podcasts… -
10-year Treasury yield drops back to 5% this week as investors seek cover from AI worriesInvestors ran for cover this week as artificial intelligence fears hit stocks, driving the 10-year Treasury below 5%. The benchmark yield stayed below 5% on Friday, after falling beneath that level Thursday for the first time in a month as… -
Investors would be barred from buying up single-family homes under new Treasury Dept ruleWASHINGTON — The US Treasury is issuing a proposed federal rule on Thursday to implement one of President Trump’s signature housing affordability bills that would bar institutional investors from buying single-family homes. In a notice of… -
Treasury yields fall sharply as traders seek safety from stock market sell-offTreasury yields fell sharply on Thursday, with investors turning to safe havens amid a steep sell-off in equities driven by concerns around the artificial intelligence trade and surging oil prices. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield… -
Treasury Counselor David Zervos: Energy shock, not sticky inflation, driving yieldsCNBC Treasury Counselor David Zervos: Energy shock, not sticky inflation, driving yields -
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.