Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2%chance
Install
Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
The odds
27%Critical minerals
- Critical minerals27%▼ 2
- Foreign-made films19%▼ 1
- Canadian aircraft18%▼ 1
- Wind turbines17%
How the odds have moved
Critical minerals: 27% on Oct 20, 27% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 24, 9 PM ETCritical minerals: 37% → 28%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical minerals | 27% | ▼ 2 | 24¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 9.2K |
| Foreign-made films | 19% | ▼ 1 | 14¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 310 |
| Canadian aircraft | 18% | ▼ 1 | 13¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 8.9K |
| Wind turbines | 17% | 14¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 13.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: tariffs, tariff
Search ›-
Trump: Tariffs have made us richPresident Donald Trump discusses the impact of his tariffs on the United States at a midterm campaign rally in Fort Myers, Fla. Trump: Tariffs have made us rich President Donald Trump discusses the impact of his tariffs on the United… -
Democrats face crack-up on Trump’s tariffsTrump’s aggressive — and unpopular — use of tariffs in his second term has created an opening for more trade-friendly voices in the party, after a decade in the political wilderness. Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate Abdul El-Sayed speaks… -
Trump rolls back some Canada tariffs as midterm election approachesBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The Trump… -
Trump administration cancels some Canada tariffs, Sen. Susan Collins saysThe Trump administration has granted tariff exemptions on some Canadian products, Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who’s facing a tough re-election battle in Maine, said Friday. The move is an implicit acknowledgement that President Donald… -
Trump dropping some Canada tariffs but ‘replacing’ them with other productsThe U.S. will issue tariff exemptions on several categories of Canadian imports, Sen. Susan Collins announced Friday. Trump dropping some Canada tariffs but âreplacingâ them with other products -
Embattled Susan Collins announces exemptions for Maine from Trump Canada tariffsRepublican facing tough re-election battle in state where Trump’s trade war with neighbor has stirred outrage Susan Collins, the embattled Republican senator for Maine, announced that several industries crucial to her state would be… -
Trump to lower Canada tariffs for certain agricultural goods, Collins saysThe Maine senator said she was able to secure tariff exemptions for a number of Canadian imports her state's agriculture industry relies on, less than two weeks before the midterm election. Sen. Susan Collins speaks with reporters as she… -
Trump's tariffs loom over Maine Senate raceCNBC Trump's tariffs loom over Maine Senate race -
Trump lifts 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods in boon to Maine Sen. Susan CollinsOctober 23, 2026 / 5:32 PM EDT / CBS News President Trump on Friday slashed tariffs on a handful of Canadian products that are used widely by Maine's agricultural industry, a move cheered by Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is facing a… -
Trump's biggest tariff was on tiny Lesotho. Here's what to know about the African kingdom.Updated on: April 4, 2025 / 12:51 PM EDT / CBS/AFP Maseru, Lesotho — President Trump in March described Lesotho as a place "nobody has ever heard of," and then this week he hit the tiny African kingdom with the highest of his "reciprocal"… - A stinky cheese tariffBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Smoot-Hawley was bad…
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Tracking Trump: Trump rolls back Canada tariffs; Melania Trump’s peace deal; Hegseth bans insider trading; and moreBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Trump rolled back some…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.