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Will Trump or the U.S. government sue Jerome Powell in 2026?
The odds
3%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 3% on Oct 19, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 6.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Jerome Powell
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Assessing Jerome Powell's eight years as Fed chairHere are some highlights from the conversation. The Fed moved from trade war uncertainty to pandemic collapse, from supply chain breakdown to an inflation surge, from regional bank stress to direct political pressure on the institution… -
AOC proclaims she’s a ‘girl’s girl’ while ripping pols for caving on transgender rights, stumping for Troy Jackson in MaineWASHINGTON — Queens and Bronx Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez laced into Democrats who have caved on transgender issues, touting herself as a “girls’ girl” while stumping for Maine Senate hopeful Troy Jackson. During a town hall in Portland… -
Wall Street can't wait for Trump to crash and burn: economistTraders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Economic journalist and author Hamish McRae reports that Wall Street is not so secretly praying for… -
Prediction Pulse: Kalshi, Polymarket bet on Hassett for Fed chair, plus recession and dildosWelcome to the very first edition of Prediction Pulse, your weekly dive into what people are betting on, and the big numbers driving those wagers. Since then, things have snowballed. Elon Musk’s xAI has teamed up with Kalshi. Donald Trump… -
Breitbart Business Digest: The Bond Vigilantes SurrenderThe Weekly Wrap: What We Learned About Jerome Powell, the Political Fed Chair Welcome back to Friday. This is the Breitbart Business Digest weekly wrap. It seems like it was only yesterday that the financial press was obsessed with the… -
US business activity expands, prices surge most since 2022Estefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered… -
AOC says she’s a ‘girl’s girl’ while ripping Dem pols for caving on transgender rightsWASHINGTON — Queens and Bronx Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez laced into Democrats who have caved on transgender issues, touting herself as a “girls’ girl” while stumping for Maine Senate hopeful Troy Jackson. During a town hall in Portland… -
BOE’s Bailey Defends Speaking Out Over Trump Attacks on Powell(Bloomberg) -- Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said he was right to defend then-Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell from Donald Trump's attacks and would do so again. Trump Uses Slur to Defend GOP Senator in Combative Speech Punches… -
Dow Jones: Solid medium-term fundamentals, but short-term momentum fadesThe Dow Jones (US30) closed the latest session with a modest gain of 0.02%, reflecting the tug-of-war between defensive demand and profit-taking pressure following a prolonged rally. The index’s upward momentum has shown signs of slowing… -
Every 1% Fed Hike Adds $95 Billion a Year to U.S. Debt Interest, BofA SaysEach percentage point of Federal Reserve rate increases adds roughly $95 billion a year to the U.S. government's interest bill, according to Bank of America, a calculation that puts a price tag on the White House's sustained campaign for… -
Data That Would Measure the Effectiveness of Key Trump, GOP Policies Has Gone Missing Ahead of the MidtermsMost American households were not eagerly awaiting a set of tax data that was supposed to come out from the Internal Revenue Service in July. Now the data is missing, with little explanation — and that’s attracting growing attention. The… -
Former Fed Chair Jerome Powell's 6-Word Warning Echoes Louder Than Ever -- and It Should Rightly Terrify Wall StreetThis has been a year packed with history-making moments on Wall Street. We've watched the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI -0.34%), S&P 500 (^GSPC -1.09%), and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC -2.15%) climb to several record highs, and witnessed…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions