Blue wave in 2026?
83%chance▼ 2
Install
Will a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?
The odds
39%Before Jan 1, 2035
- Before Jan 1, 202812%
- Before Jan 1, 202917%
- Before Jan 1, 203021%
- Before Jan 1, 203126%
- Before Jan 1, 203330%
- Before Jan 1, 203539%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2029: 18% on Oct 20, 17% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 12% | 9¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 6.1K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 17% | 14¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 6.3K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 21% | 18¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 7.9K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2031 | 26% | 23¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 9.1K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2033 | 30% | 28¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 6.5K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2035 | 39% | 38¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 11.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Earth
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On this day in space! Oct. 24, 1946: V-2 rocket takes 1st photos of Earth from spaceWhile these grainy, black-and-white images might not look like much today, they were a huge deal at the time, because no one had ever seen Earth from space before. The V-2 rocket launched from the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico… -
CNBC Daily Open: Tech falls to earth, Musk's fortunes divergeHello, this is Anniek Bao writing to you from Singapore. Markets open and close every day. Today, the Daily Open will close for the final time. — Lim Hui Jie, Leonie Kidd, Anniek Bao and Justina Lee Markets are digesting the tech rout on… -
Six things to see and do in 'one of the most breathtaking places on Earth'It might have raised a few eyebrows among the residents of Dumfries and Galloway to see the area recognised as one of the top travel destinations on the planet. Alongside Melbourne in Australia, Jaipur in India and the island of Puerto… -
Enes Kanter Freedom Goes SCHORCHED EARTH on NBA, WNBA, LeBron JamesIn this exclusive interview, former NBA player Enes Kanter Freedom discusses his recent clash with the WNBA after being denied courtside seats for wearing a controversial t-shirt. Enes Kanter Freedom Goes SCHORCHED EARTH on NBA, WNBA… -
Enes Kanter Freedom goes scorched Earth on LeBron James, NBA with new revelations after WNBA Finals incidentEnes Kanter Freedom has come forward with new allegations regarding the culture of the NBA during his playing career and sent a warning to the WNBA amid his ongoing feud regarding the league's gender eligibility policy. Angel Reese, Enes… -
Al Munteanu Launches BriskPace Unlimited Label With Orangutan True-Crime Comedy Series Showrun By ‘Cunk On Earth’ WriterEXCLUSIVE: German outfit BriskPace Studios, launched in 2025 by Al Munteanu with the team behind his SquareOne Productions, has launched BriskPace Unlimited, a new-formats label. The label’s first original series is set with The Light and… -
'Spaceship Earth' Pilot Cast Adds Three (EXCLUSIVE)EXCLUSIVE: Three have joined Disney+‘s Spaceship Earth pilot to fill out remaining series regular roles: Up-and-comers Maeve Touhey, Ta’imua, and Freddie O’Donahue, who are set to star alongside the previously announced Catherine Laga’aia… -
Obama Goes Scorched Earth on Trump at Packed Ohio RallyThe former president had plenty to say about his successor’s White House renovations—and the “not serious” people running the country. Barack Obama unleashed a blistering attack on President Donald Trump and the “not serious” people… -
This mighty cry for a goddess to help Earth proves Dickson Mbi is a bold force in danceSadler’s Wells East, LondonThe Olivier-winner draws on his Cameroonian heritage in a visceral show, with music and movement that speak as oneDickson Mbi won an Olivier award for his last major dance piece, Enowate, a result that surprised… -
Minecraft Earth set to shutdown in June 2021Mojang's Minecraft Earth is set to close down in June this year. The company made the announcement in blog post on the Minecraft website earlier today. Minecraft Earth launched less than two years ago in October, 2019. The AR spinoff of… -
Taiwan plans to build rare earths plantThe Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) plans to build a rare-earth demonstration plant that could meet half the nation’s needs by the end of 2030, as Chinese export controls heighten concerns over industrial supply chains, the… -
REEx Resilience Model Western Rare Earth Supply 2035Rare Earth Exchanges The West's Rare-Earth Clock Is Running Out: REEx Model Forecasts Durable 20% Supply-Chain Resilience Around 2033-2035 - China controlled ~60% of mined magnet rare earths, 90% of refining, and 90%+ of sintered magnets…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.