Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.1median
140230
Median 189.1Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
Install
Claudia Sheinbaum announces departure as President of Mexico? (Before Jan 2030)
The odds
12%Before Jan 1, 2030
- Before Jul 1, 20274%
- Before Jan 1, 20285%
- Before Jul 1, 20287%
- Before Jan 1, 20298%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202910%▼ 1
- Before Jan 1, 203012%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2028: 5% on Oct 19, 5% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 5% | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | ||
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 7% | 3¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | ||
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 8% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 2.00 |
| Before Jul 1, 2029 | 10% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | |
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 12% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum
Search ›-
Former president of Mexico’s campus visit draws controversy“I just feel concerned that we are platforming somebody who’s been accused of human rights violations,” Mir Yarfitz, a professor of history and Latin American studies, said. In 2014, Zedillo faced a lawsuit, later dismissed by a… -
Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum announces members of her cabinet in Mexico CityThe Lufkin Daily News - Fast food just got faster with new White Castle kiosk at Murphy Express - Burke man suffers possibly life-threatening injuries in motorcycle crash on Highway 69 - Woman given 15-year sentence for hurting âMiracle… -
Deaths of 2 CIA agents in Mexico lead to treason charges against former state attorney generalOctober 23, 2026 / 7:07 AM EDT / CBS/AP A former Mexican state attorney general could face trial for treason over accusations that he illegally launched a joint operation with the CIA without telling the federal government. The operation… -
DHS Says ‘Absolutely Zero Chance’ Migrant Caravan Will Be Allowed to Enter USThe Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has reiterated its warning against illegal entry into the United States, saying there is “absolutely zero chance” a caravan of more than 600 migrants traveling through southern Mexico will be… -
Ex-Mexican attorney general could face treason case over deaths of two US embassy officials working for CIAA former Mexican state attorney general could face trial for treason over accusations that he illegally launched a joint operation with the CIA without telling the federal government. The operation to dismantle a drug lab in the state of… -
Protestan víctimas en acto de CSP; exigen paz en ApatzingánDurante el discurso de Sheinbaum en Apatzingán, víctimas de la violencia protestaron con cartulinas para exigir justicia y seguridad. Atizapán, México (24 octubre 2026) .-11:48 hrs Asistentes a un evento oficial en Apatzingán mostraron… -
Mexico Meets Minimum Annual Water Delivery to the US Despite Extreme DroughtThis article by Arturo Sánchez Jiménez originally appeared in the October 24, 2026 edition of La Jornada, Mexico’s premier left wing daily newspaper. Mexico City. Mexico met the minimum annual volume of water deliveries from the Río Bravo… -
AQ Podcast | The Mexico-U.S. Relationship: Tensions and a Path ForwardFormer Mexican policymaker Vanessa Rubio-Márquez on President Sheinbaum's red lines with Washington and Mexico’s pending homework. AQ Podcast | The Mexico-U.S. Relationship: Tensions and a Path Forward Former Mexican policymaker Vanessa… -
Brazil faces a tense Lula vs Bolsonaro runoff with US influence over Latin America at stakePolls before Sunday’s vote showed the two candidates, who need more than 50% of the vote to become Brazil’s next leader in January, in a neck-and-neck race. The election pits the left-of-center veteran politician Lula against Bolsonaro, an… -
Ex-prosecutor charged with treason in Mexico over US drug raidCésar Jáuregui Moreno (pictured) was arrested over the weekend Federal prosecutors in Mexico have charged a former state prosecutor with treason for allowing US agents to join a raid on a suspected drugs lab in April without proper… -
Brazil faces tense Lula vs. Bolsonaro runoff with US influence over Latin America at stakeBrazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, right, who is running for reelection, and his running mate Geraldo Alckmin greet supporters at the end of their final campaign rally, a day ahead of the presidential runoff election in Sao… -
Migrant caravan on ‘faith and hope’ journey toward US borderHundreds of migrants are traveling on foot through southern Mexico with hopes of making it into the United States. The caravan of migrants, predominantly from Central America, is on what some have called a “faith and hope” journey…
Related markets
All world leaders ›Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
293.4median
250340
Median 293.4Middle half 280.8 – 308.3
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.2median
160230
Median 197.2Middle half 189.8 – 202.7
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
185.8median
140230
Median 185.8Middle half 176.0 – 197.5
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 27, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20262%
- Before Dec 1, 20265%
- Before Jan 1, 20278%
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20279%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 2
- Before Apr 1, 202718%
- Before May 1, 202719%▼ 2
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202731%
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202856%
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
22%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20268%▼ 4
- Before Jan 1, 202722%▲ 3
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.