Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.1median
140230
Median 189.1Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
Install
When will Scotland call a snap election?
The odds
29%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Jul 1, 202716%
- Before Jan 1, 202829%
How the odds have moved
Before Jul 1, 2027: 16% on Oct 19, 16% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 16% | 11¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 2.00 | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 29% | 25¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 2.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Scottish Parliament, Scotland
Search ›-
Scottish Parliament backs wind farm compensation for fishermenA vote in the Scottish Parliament has established the principle that fishermen should be compensated for financial losses caused by offshore wind development. On 7 October, MSPs voted to support an amendment to the Holyrood debate on… -
Former Scotland winger on rape chargesThe post Former Scotland winger on rape charges appeared first on The Rugby Paper. Resurgent Tigers cut loose to slay Saints Mitchell issues PWR warning after back-to-back defeats England get set for World Cup blast off Read more at The… -
Amber weather warning as Storm Boelo hits ScotlandVideo, 00:01:14Amber weather warning as Storm Boelo hits Scotland Up Next. The rise of AI election ads in US midterms campaign. Video, 00:01:57The rise of AI election ads in US midterms campaign CCTV footage shows gunmen near church in… -
Scottish Greens call on Swinney to stop 'swithering' on oil and gasGillian Mackay urged Prime Minister Andy Burnham to stop production at Rosebank from going ahead The leaders of the Scottish Green Party have condemned the UK and Scottish government's positions on new oil and gas drilling. Speaking at the… -
Rangers 4-0 St Johnstone: Scottish Premiership updates & reportUnited make it three wins from four after a sensational 90 minutes at Tannadice comes to an end. Neither of these sides have been known for their fine attacking play this season, but both of them absolutely went for it, hammer and tongs… -
8 key motions from Scottish Greens conference in InvernessTHE Scottish Greens are set to gather in the Highlands this weekend for their party conference, with a number of key motions set to be debated. The party, led by Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay, will meet at Eden Court Theatre in Inverness… -
Scotland men beat Ireland in dramatic shinty-hurling internationalScotland grabbed a stunning 24-23 victory over Ireland's hurlers in a cliffhanging shinty-hurling international in Cork, to bring a series of three Irish successes to an end. The winning point was finally scored by Kingussie's Zander… - Saturday's Scottish Premiership & Championship LIVE: radio coverage & text commentaryFT: Dundee United 3-2 Aberdeen - United take the lead for the third time in enthralling encounter FT: Falkirk 3-0 Kilmarnock - McCarthy's OG, Murrell header & another own goal from Stanger FT: Rangers 4-0 St Johnstone - Kelsy (2), Naderi &…
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No further police investigation into Yes Scotland financesBlair Jenkins, pictured with Elaine C Smith and Dennis Canavan in 2014, was chief executive of the Yes Scotland campaign Police say they have found nothing to warrant further investigation following a complaint about the finances of… -
Scottish Greens co-leaders Greer and Mackay give keynote speeches at party conferenceScottish Greens co-leaders Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay deliver their keynote speeches to the party conference in Inverness Good afternoon and welcome to our coverage of the Scottish Green Party conference in Inverness. We will bring you… -
Euro Review - Scottish Premiership PreviewCatch up on your favourite BBC radio show from your favourite DJ right here, whenever you like. Listen without limits with BBC Sounds. Radio Scotland,·23 Oct 2026,·30 mins Andy Burke, Scott Allan and Ewan Murray look back at Thursday… -
Scottish Premiership: Kelsy fires Rangers to emphatic win; Dundee United pip AberdeenRangers 4-0 St Johnstone; Dundee United 3-2 Aberdeen Kevin Kelsy scores two to sink 10-man Saints Kevin Kelsy grabbed a double as Rangers reasserted themselves with a comprehensive 4-0 win over St Johnstone at a rain-swept Ibrox that moved…
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185.8median
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.