Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
66%Democrats Sweep
- Democrats Sweep66%
- R Senate, D House25%
- Republicans Sweep7%
2 more
- D Senate, R House1%
- Other<1%
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2028 Republican Presidential ticket
The odds
26%JD Vance and Marco Rubio
- JD Vance and Marco Rubio26%
- Marco Rubio and JD Vance9%
- JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr.3%
- JD Vance and Erika Kirk3%
- Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio2%
- JD Vance and Sarah Huckabee Sanders2%
- Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio2%
- JD Vance and Elise Stefanik2%
- Marco Rubio and Glenn Youngkin2%
- JD Vance and Donald Trump2%
- Marco Rubio and Byron Donalds2%
- JD Vance and Glenn Youngkin2%
13 more
- Marco Rubio and Erika Kirk2%
- Marco Rubio and Sarah Huckabee Sanders2%
- Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr.2%
- JD Vance and Byron Donalds1%
- Tucker Carlson and Marco Rubio1%
- Marco Rubio and Donald Trump1%
- Marco Rubio and Elise Stefanik1%
- Donald Trump and Marco Rubio1%
- Tucker Carlson and JD Vance1%
- Ron DeSantis and JD Vance1%
- Thomas Massie and Marco Rubio1%
- Glenn Youngkin and Marco Rubio1%
- Tucker Carlson and Erika Kirk<1%
How the odds have moved
JD Vance and Marco Rubio: 27% on Oct 20, 26% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance and Marco Rubio | 26% | 25¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 21.9K | |
| Marco Rubio and JD Vance | 9% | 7¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 11.4K | |
| JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr. | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $23.81 | 3.8K | |
| JD Vance and Erika Kirk | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $27.03 | 21.7K | |
| Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $35.71 | 2.8K | |
| JD Vance and Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $43.48 | 5.8K | |
| Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio | 2% | 0¢ | 4¢ | $23.81 | 1.5K | |
| JD Vance and Elise Stefanik | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $40.00 | 10.7K | |
| Marco Rubio and Glenn Youngkin | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $35.71 | 412 | |
| JD Vance and Donald Trump | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $37.04 | 5.7K | |
| Marco Rubio and Byron Donalds | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $37.04 | 3.2K | |
| JD Vance and Glenn Youngkin | 2% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | 5.7K | |
| Marco Rubio and Erika Kirk | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 390 | |
| Marco Rubio and Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 202 | |
| Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr. | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 256 | |
| JD Vance and Byron Donalds | 1% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $37.04 | 882 | |
| Tucker Carlson and Marco Rubio | 1% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $37.04 | 1.2K | |
| Marco Rubio and Donald Trump | 1% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $37.04 | 5.0K | |
| Marco Rubio and Elise Stefanik | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 865 | |
| Donald Trump and Marco Rubio | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 568 | |
| Tucker Carlson and JD Vance | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 3.3K | |
| Ron DeSantis and JD Vance | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | 826 | |
| Thomas Massie and Marco Rubio | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $90.91 | 1.7K | |
| Glenn Youngkin and Marco Rubio | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | 100 | |
| Tucker Carlson and Erika Kirk | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 332 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Republican Presidential
Search ›- Remarks Announcing Candidacy for the Republican Presidential NominationWhat a pleasure it is to visit with you, to shake your hands. Laura and I are so grateful for your welcome, your enthusiasm, your confidence. There will come a time for formal speeches and 10 point plans. But I know the question on your…
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DeSantis gifts Trump coin showing him flipping off would-be assassins: ‘You missed bitches’FORT MYERS, Fla. – Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis gifted President Trump a coin Friday with a defiant message to his would-be killers ahead of a rally in the Sunshine State. The custom gold challenge coin depicts the smiling… -
Nikki Haley, asked if she thinks Trump is a "good candidate," replies "I think he is the Republican nominee"Updated on: September 6, 2024 / 5:16 PM EDT / CBS News Nikki Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said she doesn't always agree with former President Donald Trump's communications, style or approach, but she backs his… -
Bush dynasty delivers another blow to GOP in Texas Senate battle as family member breaks ranksTexas voters split in the Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton as poll numbers show a dead heat. Tess Smith and Sarah Gardner join the panel to discuss concerns that Talarico is too liberal and examine his past controversial… -
Ramaswamy: U.S. is scared of China ‘because we depend on them’Ramaswamy promised he would push back more forcefully against China as president. 08/12/2023 11:03 AM EDT Speaking at the Iowa State Fair on Saturday, Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy warned that the United States was too… - Europe’s Unrest And The 2028 Republican Presidential RaceIn today’s podcast, I start with the growing violence in Europe, where the alliance between Islamists and leftists raises troubling questions about whether Europeans still have the will to defend their civilization. Then I turn to American…
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Poll: Vance widens lead in 2028 Republican presidential primary fieldWith the 2028 presidential election just over two years away, Vice President JD Vance is gaining steam, reaching a high of 44% support in the latest of five Republican presidential primary polls conducted by The Center Square over the past… -
JD Vance and Marco Rubio Are Both Losing Ground in 2028 RaceOct 21, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have both lost ground in leading the 2028 Republican presidential nomination prediction markets, according to a Newsweek analysis of Polymarket and… -
The real reasons US politicians are getting olderNot many US politicians have endured for as long as Hal Rogers, who will go into November's midterm elections seeking his 24th term in the House of Representatives. The 88-year-old Republican has represented Kentucky's 5th congressional… -
Illinois First Lady MK Pritzker donates $500K to Amy Acton's Ohio governor campaign after Ramaswamy attack adsOctober 21, 2026 / 2:28 PM CDT / CBS Chicago Illinois First Lady MK Pritzker donated $500,000 to Amy Acton's campaign to become Ohio governor in the wake of Republican Vivek Ramaswamy releasing attack ads featuring her estranger mother… -
Nets Bury Bumbling Biden’s Most Embarrassing MomentsJoe Biden is expected to jump into the presidential race on Wednesday, but he enters a Democratic nomination fight with a lot of baggage. Most recently the former Vice President has had to deal with complaints about his history of… -
Bush family members back Democrat James Talarico in Texas Senate raceTwo members of the Bush family, the Republican political dynasty that counts Texas as its political launchpad, have backed Democrat James Talarico in the hotly fought race for a Senate seat in the Lone Star State. Barbara Bush, daughter of…
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Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
44%J.D. Vance
- J.D. Vance44%
- Marco Rubio15%
- Ron DeSantis3%
40 more
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- Ted Cruz2%
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Presidential Election Winner 2028
21%JD Vance
- JD Vance21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Gavin Newsom10%▲ 1
51 more
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- Marco Rubio9%
- Kamala Harris4%
- Josh Shapiro3%
- Pete Buttigieg3%
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- James Talarico2%
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2%
- Donald Trump1%
- Tucker Carlson1%
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- Raphael Warnock1%
- Wes Moore1%
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Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
48.1median
46.557.5
Median 48.1Middle half 47.1 – 50.3
Which party will win the House in 2026?
92%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party92%
- Republican Party9%▲ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.