Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?

Kalshi World › Middle East Closes Dec 31 · $15 today · $54.6K traded · $10.9K at stake · prices read 12 min ago

The odds

5%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 5% on Oct 20, 5% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	5%		5¢	5¢	$18.87	1.1M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran, Reza Pahlavi

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Belgian Parliament Foreign Affairs Chief Opposes Invitation to Reza Pahlavi, Warns Against Taking Sides in Iran???s OppositionIran News Update · 3 days agoEls Van Hoof argues that giving the son of Iran’s last shah an official parliamentary platform could be interpreted as Belgian support for one faction, stressing that Iranians themselves must determine their country’s democratic future…
129 Iranians in Europe Protest Friedrich Naumann Foundation???s Freedom Prize for Reza PahlaviIran News Update · 3 days agoAn open letter challenges the decision to honor the son of Iran’s former shah, citing organized violence by monarchist supporters against Iranian dissidents in exile and warning against the revival of the Shah’s repressive security…
House of Representatives will not invite Iranian Reza PahlaviBelgaShare.be · 5 days agoMR leader Georges-Louis Bouchez met the opposition figure in Paris at the end of July. He wanted to invite Pahlavi to Brussels. The matter was discussed for the first time last week, but the Conference of Presidents decided to seek advice…
FIFA has set precedent on Iran being banned from 2026 World Cup amid ongoing conflict with United StatesSPORTbible · 17 h agoEscalation of military conflict threatens much more than football but Iran's World Cup place is at risk Football shouldn't be at the front of anybody's mind with the world on the brink of war but the 2026 World Cup is inextricably linked…
Is the United States preparing to launch another attack on Iran?The Business Standard · 2 days agoGenuine or fake? The verification dilemma behind Bangladesh's K-beauty boom Bangladesh’s new poor: Why growth and safety nets are failing In rural Bangladesh, a media literacy project aims to fight fire with facts The UN at 81: Reclaiming…
Will the United States Attack Iran After the Midterms?Council on Foreign Relations · 3 days agoAfter nearly nine months of war with Iran, President Donald Trump faces a choice: escalate the conflict with Tehran, find a way to coexist, or stand pat. Will the United States escalate its war with Iran after the U.S. midterms end on…
Masoudi Says United States And Israel Could Use Tactical Nuclear Weapons Against IranNewsCord · 3 days agoPublished 24 Oct 2026, 05:19 UTCUpdated 24 Oct 2026, 05:24 UTC Masoudi says the United States could very likely use nuclear weapons against Iran. Masoudi notes Iran may move toward nuclear deterrence in response. Al Jazeera was read line…
Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: ReportFox News · 24 h agoFox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane discusses reports that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program during 'Sunday Morning Futures.' ... Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: Report Fox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane…
Trump RIPS Obama: Iran thought he was a SUCKER!Fox News · 24 h agoPresident Donald Trump sharply criticized Barack Obama's previous JCPOA deal with Iran, calling it the 'worst and dumbest deal' he has ever seen. Trump RIPS Obama: Iran thought he was a SUCKER! President Donald Trump sharply criticized…
New threats could push US and Iran toward warsemafor.com · 19 h agoThe US director of national intelligence warned that Iran was in the “advanced stages” of planning attacks against American officials abroad, prompting personnel evacuations and heightening the risk of a return to all-out war. US President…
Iran ramping up efforts to target Americans, intelligence warnsFox News · 19 h ago‘The Big Weekend Show’ co-hosts discuss President Donald Trump’s options for dealing with Iran as intelligence warns the regime may be ramping up efforts to target Americans. Iran ramping up efforts to target Americans, intelligence warns…
Andrew Harding analyzes European protests and Trump's strategy on IranFox News · 8 h agoNational security policy analyst Andrew Harding joins 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss massive protests sweeping across Europe and Trump weighing his next steps regarding the Iran deal. Andrew Harding analyzes European protests and Trump's…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles ongovernment of the United States, foreign ministry of the United States, head of state of the United States

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$54.6K (1,059,498 contracts)

Today$15

This week$7.6K

At stake$10.9K

In the news421 headlines today, 4,411 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions