Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.6median
140230
Median 189.6Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
Install
What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
The odds
97%Argentina
- Argentina97%
- Uruguay95%
- Peru94%▼ 1
- Portugal14%▼ 2
- Mexico14%▲ 1
- Brazil12%
- Ukraine6%▼ 1
- Jordan5%▲ 1
- USA5%
- Philippines5%▲ 1
- Israel4%
- South Sudan4%
How the odds have moved
Argentina: 80% on Oct 20, 97% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETArgentina: 79% → 90%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 97% | 96¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 32.4K | |
| Uruguay | 95% | 93¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 32.3K | |
| Peru | 94% | ▼ 1 | 91¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 22.6K |
| Portugal | 14% | ▼ 2 | 11¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 3.8K |
| Mexico | 14% | ▲ 1 | 11¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 27.0K |
| Brazil | 12% | 10¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 4.4K | |
| Ukraine | 6% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 8.8K |
| Jordan | 5% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 408 |
| USA | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 90.3K | |
| Philippines | 5% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 210 |
| Israel | 4% | 2¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 4.6K | |
| South Sudan | 4% | 2¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 3.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Pope Leo
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Dr. Devi Nampiaparampil breaks down Pope Leo's recovery, napping dementia riskDr. Devi Nampiaparampil joins 'Fox & Friends First' to break down the latest health update on Pope Leo's cancer recovery. She also weighs in on a new Johns Hopkins study linking frequent napping to a forty-eight percent higher risk of… -
Pope Leo holds general audienceThe 71-year-old American pontiff greeted and blessed the faithful as he hosted his general audience in St. Peter's Square on Wednesday. It was his first such gathering since being discharged from a Rome hospital last week. Pope Leo holds… -
Pope Leo's doctors say he no longer needs cancer treatment after surgeryNBC News Pope Leo needs no further cancer treatment after lung surgery Pope Leo's doctors say he no longer needs cancer treatment after surgery Pope Leo recovers after lung surgery Vatican says Pope Leo's lung surgery recovery is… -
Pope Leo XIV hosts first public audience since lung surgeryCBS News Pope Leo XIV hosts first public audience since lung surgery Fire damages house in McHenry, Illinois Jane Doe says she felt Cornell’s president didn’t believe her sex assault accusations Warmer-than-normal temps continue for a… -
Pope Leo requires no further treatment after lung surgery, doctors sayBREAKING: Pope Leo will not need further treatment following cancer surgery, his doctors say Pope Leo XIV will not need further treatment following lung cancer surgery, his doctors said Wednesday. The Vatican’s press office released an… -
Medical tests show Pope Leo requires no further treatment for lung cancerThe Washington Post Pope Leo’s doctors have also said there is “no clinical reason” to stop him from continuing with his trip to Latin America next month. Pope Leo XIV’s doctors said Wednesday that the 71-year-old pontiff would require no… -
Pope Leo won't need further treatment after lung cancer surgery, doctors sayCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Pope Leo XIV will… -
No further treatment needed for Pope Leo after cancer surgery, Vatican saysCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Vatican: No more… -
Russian Missiles Pummel Ukraine, Trump Asked Google To Rename Ocean, Pope Leo Health Update: The Bulletin, Oct. 22Russia launched a major missile and drone attack on Ukraine just hours after U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff called President Vladimir Putin a "humanitarian... - Global Iran WarRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaLive BlogBetter… -
Pope Leo rides popemobile for first time since surgeryNBC News Pope Leo rides popemobile for first time since surgery -
Pope Leo Health Update: No Further Treatment Planned After Cancer ConfirmedOct 21, 2026 at 04:12 PM EDT Oct 21, 2026 at 05:15 PM EDT Pope Leo XIV will not need further cancer treatment following surgery to remove a tumor from his right lung, the Vatican said Wednesday, after final tests confirmed it was a… -
Pope Leo needs no further lung cancer treatment, Vatican saysPope Leo XIV’s lung cancer surgery last week was a success and no further treatment is required, the Vatican press office said in a bulletin Wednesday. “The final histological reports and molecular biology analyses of the tissue removed…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions