Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
3%chance
Install
How many people will Trump pardon in Oct 2026?
The odds
2.39median
1.50397.5
Median 2.39Middle half 1.95 – 7.42
How the odds have moved
Median: 6 on Oct 20, 2.39 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21% | $4.76 | 4.3K | ||||
| 1 | 18% | $5.56 | 43.00 | |||
| 2 | 56% | ▲ 27 | 54¢ | 63¢ | $1.59 | 2.2K |
| 3 to 9 | 26% | ▼ 14 | 25¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 1.5K |
| 10 to 24 | 4% | ▼ 2 | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 85.00 |
| 25 to 99 | 5% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 34.00 |
| 100 to 249 | 4% | ▼ 2 | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 18.00 |
| Above 249 | 4% | ▼ 2 | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 18.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump
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President Trump, first lady Melania Trump cast early voting ballotsPresident Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump deliver remarks after casting their early voting ballots in West Palm Beach, Fla. President Trump, first lady Melania Trump cast early voting ballots President Donald Trump and first lady… -
Will Trump’s midterm blitz boost turnout?Paul Gigot interviews pollster Mark Penn on ‘The Journal Editorial Report.' Will Trump’s midterm blitz boost turnout? Paul Gigot interviews pollster Mark Penn on ‘The Journal Editorial Report.' -
Trump casts his midterm election ballot early in FloridaPresident Donald Trump cast his ballot in the midterm elections Saturday, saying he voted for all Republicans in Florida before speaking at a Georgia rally. Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrived together at their West Palm Beach… -
Biden’s economy keeps messing up Trump’s message“You can’t blame the president when policies go wrong, and then say he’s not responsible if things are going right.” On Monday, former President Donald Trump claimed on Truth Social that voters were already enjoying a "TRUMP STOCK MARKET"… -
Obama slams Ramaswamy and Trump in his first rally of the midtermsThe former president is again stepping off the sidelines in the closing stretch of an election. Former President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign rally on Oct. 24, 2026, in Cleveland. | Sue Ogrocki/AP 10/24/2026 5:24 PM EDT In his… -
Melania Trump adviser shares INSIDE LOOK at ceasefire agreementMarc Beckman, a senior advisor to Melania Trump, joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discuss the first lady's humanitarian efforts in Ukraine. Melania Trump adviser shares INSIDE LOOK at ceasefire agreement Marc Beckman, a senior advisor to… -
Bill Maher fires back at liberal critics over second Trump dinnerComedian Bill Maher had a string of harsh words Friday for critics who may have taken issue with his second dinner with President Donald Trump at the White House last week. During his opening monologue on HBO’s "Real Time," Maher hit back… -
Trump's Words Used Against Him in Alaska Lawsuit, DOJ Sanctions SoughtOct 24, 2026 at 08:43 AM EDT Oct 24, 2026 at 10:11 AM EDT President Trump’s words were used against him in a legal motion filed on Friday seeking to dismiss a lawsuit brought by the Department of Justice (DOJ) that could potentially block… -
Trump Tests Midterm Pull in Georgia With Second Rally in Eight DaysOct 24, 2026 at 04:01 PM EDT President Donald Trump returns to Georgia on Saturday for his second rally in the battleground state in eight days, as Republicans look to his political influence for a boost in two closely watched statewide… -
Trump advisers say Netanyahu loss could be good for US agendaPresident Trump’s advisers reportedly believe a loss by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tuesday’s election could actually make it easier to advance the president’s Middle East agenda. Should Netanyahu — who has served as prime… -
Democrats, voting-rights groups challenge Trump's bid to block Alaska Senate certificationDemocratic groups and voting-rights advocates are seeking to join a federal lawsuit to stop the Justice Department's effort to prevent Alaska from certifying its U.S. Senate election results if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. The… -
Trump, Vance defend controversial Ramaswamy attack ad; Obama campaigns with Amy ActonCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Obama campaigns…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.