Brazil Presidential Election
80%Flávio Bolsonaro
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Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin? (As of Nov 4, 2026)
The odds
37.4median
22.142.9
Median 37.4Middle half 33.4 – 39.8
How the odds have moved
Median: 36.7 on Oct 19, 37.4 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below D+25 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 23.00 | |
| D+25 to D+27.9 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 23.00 | |
| D+28 to D+30.9 | 10% | ▼ 2 | 6¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 138 |
| D+31 to D+33.9 | 14% | 11¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 46.00 | |
| D+34 to D+36.9 | 19% | 12¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 53.00 | |
| D+37 to D+39.9 | 30% | ▲ 3 | 22¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 2.4K |
| D+40 or more | 24% | 17¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 1.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Pennsylvania
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Allegheny County becomes first in Pennsylvania to adopt paid parental leave policyOctober 24, 2026 / 12:06 PM EDT / CBS Pittsburgh On Tuesday, Allegheny County made history as the first county in Pennsylvania to adopt paid parental leave for workers. In an 11-4 vote, Allegheny County Council passed the plan, which was… -
Poverty simulation gives Pennsylvania participants glimpse of life on tight budgetCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Poverty… -
Pennsylvania voter explains his shift from liberal to conservativePennsylvania voter James Shafer explains why he went from a liberal Democrat to a conservative Republican on ‘America Reports.’ ... Pennsylvania voter explains his shift from liberal to conservative Pennsylvania voter James Shafer explains… -
Working-class voters could play key role in Pennsylvania House racesPennsylvania voter James Shafer discusses how inflation, rising gas prices and the economy are affecting working-class voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections on ‘America Reports.’ ... Working-class voters could play key role in… -
As Pennsylvania’s Legislature Wraps Up Its Session, Many Bipartisan Bills Are Poised to FailThe General Assembly is expected to pass its fewest individual bills this session since at least 1973. Article by Stephen Caruso, Kate Huangpu, and Jaxon White of Spotlight PA HARRISBURG, Pa. — As state lawmakers wrap up their legislative… -
Pennsylvania one of the first states to require disclosures on AI-generated adsCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting… -
Gov. Shapiro signs bill into law defunding cat, dog testing in PennsylvaniaCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Gov… -
DOJ Reminds Us the Thing Dems Say Never Happens Happened Again (in Pennsylvania This Time)According to Democrats, efforts to make sure only legal citizens of the United States are casting ballots in our elections are unnecessary and amount to voter suppression. Chuck Schumer made that clear again yesterday. Obviously there are… -
2026’s Craziest Candidate Wants to Represent Historic District in PennsylvaniaOn “The Alex Marlow Show,” host and Breitbart Editor-in-Chief Alex Marlow talked about Democrats. Marlow said, “Janelle Stelson, who seems like one of the oddest ducks among a bunch of odd ducks on the Democrat slate, probably the worst… - Will Pennsylvania join Trump’s education tax credit program? Shapiro says he’s open to it.Pressure is mounting on the Democrat to decide whether to opt his state in or out of the federal scholarship program. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is âvery openâ to Trumpâs education tax credit program - You may not edit the story…
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DOJ to send election day monitors to four Pennsylvania countiesby Sarah Burns, Tyler Jeski PENNSYLVANIA (WHP) — The Department of Justice notified the PA Department of State and Secretary Al Schmidt in a letter that it will be sending election monitors to four counties in PA for the November 3 voting… -
‘She’s Gonna Lose So Badly It May Set a Record’: Pennsylvania’s Stacy Garrity Slammed After Defending AIRepublican Pennsylvania Treasurer and current gubernatorial candidate Stacy Garrity has sparked backlash after defending her use of AI in a recent political ad. Garrity was in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, where she talked about data centers…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions