Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 4, 2026
66.39%median
63.2%70.1%
Median 66.39%
Install
Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 3, 2026
The odds
66.01%median
49.7%85.1%
Median 66.01%Middle half 61.67% – 70.35%
How the odds have moved
Median: 66.26% on Nov 2, 66.01% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 61.5% | 76% | 81¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 9.00 | |
| Above 73.3% | 8% | 3¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Closed Token Volume
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All ai ›AI capability growth this year? (Before 2027)
1,558median
1,5001,800
Median 1,558
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.21Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.21T.
- Reaches $1.5T90%
- Reaches $1.75T83%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
55%Google
- Google55%▲ 2
- Anthropic38%▲ 2
- OpenAI5%
12 more
- Meta1%
- xAI1%
- Alibaba<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Baidu<1%
- ByteDance<1%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
>99%No release by October 31
- No release by October 31>99%▲ 2
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 19<1%▼ 2
11 more
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
- October 25<1%▼ 1
- October 26<1%▼ 4
- October 27<1%▼ 16
- October 28<1%▼ 2
- October 29<1%▼ 3
- October 30<1%▼ 1
- October 31<1%▼ 1
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1,410median
1,3801,480
Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions