Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
24%December 31, 2029
- December 31, 202710%
- December 31, 202817%▼ 2
- December 31, 202924%
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AI capability growth this year? (Before 2027)
The odds
1,544median
1,5301,800
Median 1,544
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ At least 1520 score | 99% | $1.01 | 143.5K | |||
| ✓ At least 1530 score | 99% | $1.01 | 65.1K | |||
| At least 1540 score | 60% | ▲ 13 | 58¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 14.1K |
| At least 1550 score | 34% | ▼ 1 | 33¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 62.8K |
| At least 1600 score | 5% | ▼ 3 | 3¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 22.1K |
| At least 1650 score | 2% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 4.9K |
| At least 1700 score | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.8K | |
| At least 1750 score | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 3.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All ai ›Which company has the best AI model end of October?
73%Google
- Google73%▲ 1
- Anthropic23%▼ 4
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.1Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.1T.
- Reaches $1.5T89%
- Reaches $1.75T69%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Oct 26, 2026even chance by
- October 2123%▼ 19
- October 2244%▼ 17
- October 2445%▼ 27
2 more
- October 3179%▼ 3
- December 3198%
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
51%Anthropic
- Anthropic51%▲ 4
- Google40%▲ 1
- OpenAI6%▼ 2
12 more
- Meta2%▼ 1
- xAI1%
- Alibaba<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Meituan<1%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
23%October 20
- October 2023%▼ 9
- No release by October 3121%▲ 3
- October 2217%▼ 10
11 more
- October 2712%▲ 4
- October 294%▲ 1
- October 244%
- October 232%▼ 4
- October 212%▼ 6
- October 262%
- October 192%▲ 1
- October 281%
- October 251%
- October 301%
- October 31<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.