Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
99%chance
Install
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State?
The odds
53%No other person
- No other person53%
- Robert O'Brien14%
- Ric Grenell10%
- Bill Hagerty7%
- Mike Waltz1%
How the odds have moved
No other person: 58% on Oct 20, 53% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No other person | 53% | 50¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 2.6K | |
| Robert O'Brien | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 696 | |
| Ric Grenell | 10% | 5¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 997 | |
| Bill Hagerty | 7% | 4¢ | 10¢ | $10.10 | 525 | |
| Mike Waltz | 1% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $40.00 | 743 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Secretary of State, Robert O'Brien, Ric Grenell
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Ric Grenell offered Alina Habba’s Turkish billionaire husband access to Trump for $6M Kennedy Center donation that vanished, texts allegeWASHINGTON — Ric Grenell, the embattled former executive director of the Kennedy Center, allegedly promised Turkish billionaire Turhan Mildon access to President Trump while reeling in an alleged $5.6 million donation to the performing… -
EXCLUSIVE: Secretary of State Marco Rubio gives NFL commissioner assurances that game in France 'will be fine'The NFL will play its first game in Paris this Sunday as the city faces civil unrest. The Steelers and Saints are still set to travel, prompting Craig Carton to wonder whether Roger Goodell will show up in the City of Love. NFL… -
Allegations involving Ric Grenell raise questions about pay-for-play in White HouseAIDS Walk Los Angeles takes to the streets in West Hollywood while raising money for HIV/AIDS Care Trump uses anti-trans slur against Democratic Senate candidate In Ga., 2 trans candidates believe voters are ready for them New Zealand High… -
Alina Habba Accuses Ric Grenell Over $5.6 Million Kennedy Center Donation TheftA dispute between two prominent Trump allies has drawn scrutiny to an alleged donation arrangement involving a private defense company, foreign money and purported promises of access to the president. Grenell denies wrongdoing, and the… -
Ric Grenell under fire over alleged offer of Trump access tied to missing Kennedy Center donationA $17.6 million transfer, an alleged offer of presidential access, and conflicting accounts have drawn scrutiny from the White House counsel. Ric Grenell attends the world premiere of Amazon MGM’s “Melania” at The Kennedy Center in… -
Secretary of State announces new election dashboardKTVN He says the goal is to increase transparency about the state's election process. Outdoor ground boarding set to begin at Reno-Tahoe International Airport Snow on Mt. Rose Reno Police asking for help finding missing 30-year-old… -
West Virginia secretary of state releases video on voting amendmentProposed Constitutional Amendment: What West Virginia Voters Should Know CHARLESTON, W.Va. — West Virginia Secretary of State Kris Warner has released an informational video explaining the proposed constitutional amendment that will appear… -
N.Y. Secretary of State celebrates Brick Tavern Museum renovationMONTOUR FALLS, N.Y. (WENY) — The New York Secretary of State stopped in Montour Falls on Thursday to celebrate the work on the Brick Tavern Museum. Secretary Walter Mosley stood alongside the village mayor and members of the Schuyler… -
1-on-1 with (U) Scott Morgan, Kansas Secretary of State candidateKCTV 1-on-1 with (U) Scott Morgan, Kansas Secretary of State candidate ‘Survive and advance’: Young mom shares breast cancer journey Chris Jones speaks to attacking Seahawks offense ahead of tough matchup Eric Bieniemy talks on K9… -
Engling supported for Secretary of StateAs a lifelong believer in fair elections and strong local businesses, I'm supporting Max Engling for Indiana Secretary of State. What stands out to me about Max is his focus on common-sense priorities that matter to everyday Hoosiers. He… -
Greg Ballard on Why He's Running for Secretary of State as an...Former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard explains why he's running for Indiana Secretary of State as an independent, his plans for election oversight and his push to form the Lincoln Party. Former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard joined Tina… -
1-on-1 with (R) Pat Proctor, Kansas Secretary of State candidateKCTV KANSAS CITY, Mo. (KCTV) - Pat Proctor, the Republican candidate for Kansas Secretary of State, spoke with KCTV5 sister station WIBW in Topeka ahead of the November general election. You can watch the full 1-on-1 interview in the video…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.