Brazil Presidential Election
78%Flávio Bolsonaro
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Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO? (Before Jan 1, 2099)
The odds
30%Mette Frederiksen
- Mette Frederiksen30%
- Keir Starmer19%
- Kaja Kallas16%
- Alexander Stubb13%
- Klaus Iohannis5%
- Ursula von der Leyen4%
- Ben Wallace3%
- Petr Pavel3%
How the odds have moved
Mette Frederiksen: 32% on Oct 19, 30% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mette Frederiksen | 30% | 26¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 695 | |
| Keir Starmer | 19% | 15¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 1.0K | |
| Kaja Kallas | 16% | 12¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 1.9K | |
| Alexander Stubb | 13% | 12¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 1.0K | |
| Klaus Iohannis | 5% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 369 | |
| Ursula von der Leyen | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 711 | |
| Ben Wallace | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 1.1K | |
| Petr Pavel | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 645 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Secretary General of NATO, Mette Frederiksen, Keir Starmer
Search ›- Kaja Kallas Visits Register Of Damage For UkraineThe European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, visited the Register of Damage for Ukraine in The Hague on 23 October. During the visit, High Representative Kallas met the Register's Executive…
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Keir Starmer could be called to give evidence at grooming gangs inquirySir Keir Starmer could be called to give evidence at the national grooming gangs inquiry after being granted formal status in the investigation he ordered while in office. The former prime minister has been designated a "core participant"… -
Keir Starmer listed as 'core participant' in grooming gangs inquiryThe ex-Prime Minister will give evidence after announcing the investigation WATCH NOW: Grooming gangs inquiry to target Wales and Birmingham Sir Keir Starmer will be summoned to give evidence to the national grooming gangs inquiry, GB News… -
It makes sense to make winter fuel payment change, says Sir Keir StarmerSir Keir Starmer has said it “makes sense to make the change” to winter fuel payments, but there were decisions made in the Budget which he would have preferred “not to have had to make”. The Prime Minister spoke to a number of BBC local… -
EU High Representative Kaja Kallas Accuses US of Supporting RussiaThe EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, continues to persist with her aggressive anti-Russian rhetoric – an approach that now targets even Western officials who choose not to participate in Brussels’ pro-war frenzy. In a recent statement… -
Kaja Kallas accuses the US of pushing Ukraine towards surrender. Estonia knows what is at stake**Kaja Kallas has openly accused American negotiators of pressuring Ukraine to accept Vladimir Putin’s conditions for ending the war. Her statement comes as Washington, Kyiv and European representatives discuss a possible peace settlement… -
Kaja Kallas arrives in BakuHigh Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas said: “Azerbaijan is a valued and reliable energy partner for the European Union, so it’s good to be in Baku today. There… - General Secretary and President To Lam held talks with Danish Prime Minister Mette FrederiksenAccording to the VNA special correspondent, within the framework of the State visit to the Kingdom of Denmark from October 19-21, on October 20 (local time), in Copenhagen, General Secretary and President To Lam held talks with Danish…
- Sarah Helm Demands Keir Starmer and David Lammy Face Trial at The HaguePublished 20 Oct 2026, 11:47 UTC Sarah Helm backed Keir Starmer being tried at The Hague. She defended Hamas and questioned the UN's mass-rape report. Sarah Helm, the wife of Britain’s national security adviser Jonathan Powell, defended…
- Attacks off Bulgaria and Romania require a united European response, Kaja Kallas saysEurope must respond to the escalation in the Black Sea by protecting Ukrainian exports, strengthening maritime security and increasing international pressure on Russia, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told the European Parliament in…
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EU won’t try to steal Russian assets again – BelgiumThe European Commission will not revive a proposal to seize Russian sovereign assets immobilized at the Belgium-based clearing house Euroclear to finance Ukraine, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever has said. “One colleague came to tell… -
Can John Healey make a dent in the cost of living crisis in his first budget?Much of the Burnham project depends on how the budget is received, as promise of ‘breathing space’ is a two-way street You be the chancellor: play our budget game to see if you can balance the books Every Sunday night, the chancellor, John…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.