US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
65%October 22
- October 2265%▼ 4
- October 2465%▼ 3
- October 2865%▼ 4
6 more
- October 3165%▼ 4
- November 865%▼ 6
- November 1565%▼ 4
- November 2265%▼ 4
- November 3065%▼ 2
- December 3165%▼ 3
Install
Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)
The odds
37%At least 9
- Reaches 937%
- Reaches 1025%
- Reaches 1212%
- Reaches 149%
- Reaches 168%
- Reaches 206%
- Reaches 254%
Already reached: At least 5, At least 8
How the odds have moved
Reaches 9: 37% on Oct 20, 37% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ At least 5 | 99% | $1.01 | 298 | |||
| ✓ At least 8 | 98% | $1.02 | 12.9K | |||
| At least 9 | 37% | 33¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 357 | |
| At least 10 | 25% | ▼ 3 | 22¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 3.8K |
| At least 12 | 12% | ▲ 1 | 8¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 966 |
| At least 14 | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | ||
| At least 16 | 8% | 4¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 331 | |
| At least 20 | 6% | 3¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 775 | |
| At least 25 | 4% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 1.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Strait of Hormuz
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
91%No Hormuz Agreement
- No Hormuz Agreement91%▼ 5
- Hormuz Agreement; R Senate4%▲ 3
- Hormuz Agreement; D Senate3%▲ 1
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
72%October 21
- October 2172%▼ 1
- October 3172%▼ 2
- November 1572%▼ 2
2 more
- November 3072%▼ 1
- December 3172%▼ 4
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
36%December 31
- March 3133%▲ 6
- October 3133%▲ 3
- November 3033%▲ 5
1 more
- December 3136%▼ 1
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
88%No Hormuz Agreement
- No Hormuz Agreement88%▼ 3
- Hormuz Agreement; D Senate7%▲ 3
- Hormuz Agreement; R Senate4%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.