Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.5median
140230
Median 189.5Middle half 177.2 – 200.8
Install
Will Christopher Luxon announce their departure as Prime Minister? (Before Jan 2027)
The odds
3%Before Nov 7, 2026
- Before Nov 7, 20263%
How the odds have moved
Before Nov 7, 2026: 4% on Oct 19, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 2% | $50.00 | 9.7K | |||
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 8.1K | |||
| Before Nov 7, 2026 | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 4.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Christopher Luxon, Prime Minister
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CNN attends Gadi Eisenkot's final rally days before facing off with Netanyahu to become Israel's next prime ministerCNN Jerusalem Correspondent Jeremy Diamond is on the ground in Tel Aviv as Israel's former military chief Gadi Eisenkot makes his final push before voters head to the polls on Tuesday. CNN attends Gadi Eisenkot’s final rally days before… -
India's Narendra Modi sworn in for third term as prime ministerJune 9, 2024 / 11:11 AM EDT / AP India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office for a third consecutive term on Sunday, but it may hold more challenges for the popular-but-polarizing leader than his past decade in power. His Hindu… -
How Israel elects its prime minister without voters choosing a candidateIsrael is set to hold parliamentary elections on October 27 to elect a new Knesset, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing the prospect of losing power amid growing public discontent. The election will be the country's first… -
Prime Minister Narendra Modi witnesses IAF aircraft formations in VaranasiShorts News:Prime Minister Narendra Modi witnesses IAF aircraft formations in Varanasi Prime Minister Narendra Modi witnesses IAF aircraft formations in Varanasi -
Former UK Prime Minister Listed As ‘Core Participant’ in Grooming Gang InquiryKeir Starmer may have had the same fear. For five years, as the Muslim rape gangs marauded all over the country, from 2008 to 2013, Starmer was director of public prosecutions. In those five years, the future prime minister had many… -
Tension at the Prime Minister's Office in Tirana, protesters set fire to the chairs that Rama brought out for dialogueMoments of tension have been recorded in front of the Prime Minister's Office in Tirana, where protesters have set fire to chairs placed by Prime Minister Edi Rama as a symbol of his invitation for dialogue with students. The chairs were… -
Prime Minister Carney to host Canada-European Union Summit in Montréal to advance an ambitious new Canada-EU partnershipOTTAWA, ON , Oct. 25, 2026 /CNW/ — For the past year and a half, Canada and the European Union have been working with speed and determination to forge an ambitious new partnership. Prime Minister Carney to host Canada-European Union Summit… -
Prime Minister announces £285m funding boost for local leadersMayors across England back plans to give regions greater control over investment in housing, transport and town centre regeneration Local leaders across England are set to receive a national share of £285 million in funding to support… - Spain’s Prime Minister Vows Abortion ShieldThis story is part of our coverage of the Spain election 2026. The live odds, the polls and every report on the 29 November vote are in our Spain election 2026 dossier. This story is part of our coverage of the Europe political crisis. Why…
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The Shahbandar who became Prime MinisterFrom Tunku Azizah Aminah Maimunah Iskandariah Before Tun Abdul Razak Hussein became the Prime Minister, he was already a Shahbandar. Before the nation entrusted him with its government, the Sultan of Pahang had entrusted him with an office… -
Prime Minister Carney to welcome Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi to strengthen Canada’s economic and security partnership with the United Arab EmiratesOTTAWA, ON, Oct. 25, 2026 /CNW/ — In a rapidly changing world, Canada’s government is focused on what we can control: building our strength at home and diversifying our partnerships abroad. Prime Minister Carney to welcome Crown Prince of… -
PM Modi’s Odisha visit LIVE updates: Prime Minister to Inaugurate RBI Data Centre todayPM Modi’s Odisha visit LIVE updates: Follow the latest developments as he inaugurates the RBI Greenfield Data Centre and a cyber security training institute in Jatni. PM Modi’s Odisha visit LIVE updates: Prime Minister to Inaugurate RBI…
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- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
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191.9median
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions