Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 15, 8 AM ETBefore Jul 1, 2027: 84% → 74%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Before Apr 1, 2027
67%
▼ 16
65¢
68¢
$1.47
18.6K
Before Jul 1, 2027
74%
▼ 14
72¢
75¢
$1.33
20.8K
Before Oct 1, 2027
82%
▼ 1
69¢
81¢
$1.23
5.7K
Before Jan 1, 2028
85%
▲ 56
82¢
88¢
$1.14
2.00
Before Jul 1, 2028
89%
▲ 69
85¢
92¢
$1.09
2.00
Before Jan 1, 2029
92%
▼ 7
88¢
95¢
$1.05
215
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Howard Lutnick's Embraer Lineage 1000E lands at Reagan National from AlbanyCelebplanes · 24 days ago§A · Dispatch · Landing The 55-minute flight from Albany International Airport to Washington touched down at 19:32 UTC on October 21, 2026. Howard Lutnick's Embraer Lineage 1000E, tail N527AH, flew from Albany International Airport (KALB)…
Carney brushes off Lutnick’s take on what killed trade talksPOLITICO · 22 days agoPresident Donald Trump says the trade fight puts Canada’s economy and Carney’s leadership at risk. Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc, left, and Prime Minister Mark Carney depart a press conference on Parliament Hill on Aug. 22…
Senate Democrat Probes Tether Payments to Ex-White House Crypto Adviser’s FirmDecrypt · 23 days agoTether is facing fresh scrutiny in the Senate over millions of dollars that reportedly flowed to a firm co-owned by Bo Hines while he helped shape U.S. stablecoin law at the White House. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., the top Democrat…
Susan Collins Touts Canada Tariff Exemptions in Tight Maine Senate RaceNewsweek · 23 days agoOct 23, 2026 at 03:21 PM EDT Republican Senator Susan Collins announced Friday that U.S. tariffs will exempt nine categories of Canadian imports used by Maine agricultural businesses after she pressed the Trump administration for relief…
Trump administration cancels some Canada tariffs, Sen. Susan Collins saysNBC News · 23 days agoThe Trump administration has granted tariff exemptions on some Canadian products, Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who’s facing a tough re-election battle in Maine, said Friday. The move is an implicit acknowledgement that President Donald…
Japan invests $21B in GlobalFoundries to build two US chip plantsFox Business · 25 days agoSemiconductor manufacturing in the United States receives a major boost as Japan announces a massive $21 billion investment to construct two new chip fabrication plants at the GlobalFoundries Malta, New York campus. Commerce Secretary…
Trump exempts some Canadian imports from his 50 percent tariffsBostonGlobe.com · 23 days agoThe White House said the president was seeking to offset âthe burden to US commerce while better serving the public interest.ââ Trump, seeking to help Maine Senator Susan Collins, exempts some Canadian imports from his 50 percent…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions