Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.5median
140230
Median 189.5Middle half 177.2 – 200.8
Install
Will nonstop U.S.–Lebanon passenger flights resume?
The odds
21%Before Apr 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 20279%
- Before Apr 1, 202721%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 7% on Oct 20, 9% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9% | 6¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 7.4K | |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 21% | ▼ 2 | 17¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 4.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Lebanon
Search ›-
Beirut's $13 chicken sandwich becomes a symbol of Lebanon's divideSeven years after Lebanon's devastating financial meltdown, a debate over a chicken sandwich has exposed a starker divide between those who can still spend freely and those struggling to get by. A trendy health restaurant wanted to offer… -
Lebanon Daily LifeGazetteXtra A man holds freshly picked olives in his hands during the olive harvest in the village of Roumine, southern Lebanon, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026. Rock County Board OKs panelists for new data center advisory panel despite some… -
Lebanese growing increasingly impatient with leadersLebanese growing increasingly impatient with leaders Lebanese social media users are growing increasingly impatient with President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. The two rallying points are the lack of solutions in the wake of… -
Lebanon and Kuwait reaffirm historic tiesBEIRUT: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on Friday reaffirmed the deep-rooted fraternal and historic relations between Lebanon and Kuwait, stressing both countrie... Lebanon and Kuwait reaffirm historic ties BEIRUT: Lebanese President Joseph… -
Are Lebanon's Shiites turning their backs on Hezbollah?The struggle over Lebanon's future is being fought not only on the battlefield and in the corridors of power in Beirut, but also, and perhaps above all, in the media. In recent years, news outlets have become another battleground between… -
Irish troops should be in new Lebanon mission - McEnteeIrish troops should be deployed to Lebanon as part of a new EU mission and be involved in both peacekeeping and peace enforcement duties, according to the Minister for Foreign Affairs and Defence, Helen McEntee. Troops are currently… -
Lebanon Standoff: Political Divisions Threaten Security StabilityGlobal Arab Network Lebanon Standoff: Political Divisions Threaten Security Stability Lebanon faces an increasingly precarious security outlook as internal political divisions intersect with the complexities of ongoing diplomatic… -
Statewide Silver Alert Declared For Lebanon TeenagerLEBANON – A Statewide Silver Alert has been declared for a Lebanon teenager. The Lebanon Police Department is investigating the disappearance of Ziarre Cobbs, a 17-year-old black girl who is 5 feet 4 inches tall and weighs 140 pounds. She… -
How a $13 chicken sandwich has exposed Lebanon's deepening inequalityA $13 chicken sandwich has sparked a debate over inequality in Lebanon, where four in five households struggle to afford basic necessities even as some consumers continue to pay premium prices, Reuters reported. Beirut’s 'The Glow… - The United States Officially Unbanned Direct Flights To LebanonLebanon just took a major step toward reconnecting with the United States. President Donald Trump has officially lifted the decades-old restrictions preventing U.S. airlines from operating direct flights to Lebanon, opening the door for…
-
Lebanese Open Chess Championship 2026ChessBase India News, training and tools for the whole chess community. -
Interceptor launched at suspicious aerial target near troops in southern LebanonA short while ago, an interceptor was launched toward a suspicious aerial target identified in the area in which IDF soldiers are operating in southern Lebanon.No sirens were sounded in accordance with protocol. Interceptor launched at…
Related markets
All world leaders ›Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
294.9median
250340
Median 294.9Middle half 282 – 308.2
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.4median
160230
Median 197.4Middle half 189.8 – 202.9
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 18, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20261%▼ 1
- Before Dec 1, 20265%▼ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20278%
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20279%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202713%▼ 2
- Before Apr 1, 202717%▼ 1
- Before May 1, 202719%▼ 1
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202731%
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202857%▲ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
20%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20266%▼ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202720%▼ 2
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
191.9median
160230
Median 191.9Middle half 184.3 – 202.7
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions