Will Venezuela exit OPEC?

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Dec 31, 2027 · prices read 10 h ago

The odds

38%Before Jan 1, 2028

Before Jan 1, 202710%▼ 1
Before Jul 1, 202724%▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 202838%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2027: 10% on Oct 19, 10% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Jan 1, 2027	10%	▼ 1	5¢	14¢	$7.14
Before Jul 1, 2027	24%	▼ 1	19¢	28¢	$3.57	2.00
Before Jan 1, 2028	38%	▼ 1	33¢	42¢	$2.38

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Venezuela, Maduro, OPEC

Search ›

Machado says Venezuelans are "very grateful" to Trump for ousting Maduro, after he suggests she can't lead the countryCBS News · 4 days agoUpdated on: January 6, 2026 / 10:49 PM EST / CBS News Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado hailed President Trump for removing Nicolás Maduro from power and argued her coalition has a mandate to lead the country moving forward…
In the Venezuelan stronghold of Doral, some voters discouraged by Trump's policies ahead of midterms: "I feel, in a way, betrayed."CBS News · 16 h agoOctober 24, 2026 / 9:47 PM EDT / CBS News Latinos voted in record numbers for President Trump in 2024, but polling shows that voting bloc is up for grabs in the midterms. And one region that reflects that shift is Florida's Miami-Dade…
Exclusive — Venezuela Opposition Negotiator Dinorah Figuera: Maduro’s Capture Opened ‘the Path to Hope’Breitbart · 3 days agoPresident Donald Trump’s bold decision to approve the mission to arrest former dictator Nicolás Maduro created the “path to hope” that Venezuelans are cautiously taking toward holding elections, Dinorah Figuera, the surgeon and former…
US Uses Rare Torture Law in Maduro CaseThe Rio Times · 43 h ago—Who. Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, are accused by US prosecutors. —What. A superseding indictment adds conspiracy to commit torture under federal law, alongside drug and weapons counts. —Dates. The…
She Fled Maduro’s Regime. Washington Brought Her Back to Negotiate With It.Hindustan Times · 11 h agoCARACAS—When Dinorah Figuera first sat down for talks on restoring democratic institutions here, she faced one of the most powerful figures in the autocratic regime that drove her into exile. “I am not afraid of you,” she said she told…
Venezuela-US TensionsThe Rio Times · 43 h agoWho runs Venezuela after Maduro, what Washington wants, the sanctions and oil deals, the Maduro case and the live odds. Venezuela and the US explained: who runs the country after Maduro's capture, sanctions and oil, the New York case, the…
Venezuela Marchers Demand Election DateThe Rio Times · 37 h agoOpposition supporters marched across Venezuela on Thursday, 22 October 2026, demanding that the government set a date for a presidential election. The marches, which followed the latest round of US-backed talks, are part of our Venezuela…
US invokes rarely used torture law against ousted Venezuelan president Maduro@myind.net · 4 days agoNicolas Maduro has become one of only eight people charged in the United States under a 1994 federal law criminalising torture committed overseas, as prosecutors expand their case against the ousted Venezuelan president. Maduro, 63, and…
Treasury Leaves Venezuela Off Curbs, 22 OctThe Rio Times · 43 h agoTreasury says Venezuela does not meet the proposed definition of a country of concern in its outbound investment rules. The agency says the Maduro regime named in the law no longer exists. On Thursday, 22 October, Treasury proposed…
Venezuela Oil Field Hits 115,000 BarrelsThe Rio Times · 33 h agoVenezuela is led by an acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, after US forces captured former president Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. Washington now works closely with her government, mainly on oil. NABEP is the private company, led by…
GE Vernova Calls Venezuela Grid PrecariousThe Rio Times · 43 h agoVENEZUELA · POWER GRID GE Vernova’s Venezuela president says turbines and substations are in precarious shape. He blames missing maintenance that the makers require. On Thursday, 22 October, the head of GE Vernova’s Venezuelan unit said…
US Reportedly Uses Venezuela Files, 23 OctThe Rio Times · 46 h agoVENEZUELA · US VISAS The United States is reportedly using Venezuela files once held by the country’s intelligence services to screen Venezuelans who ask to enter the US, the Spanish newspaper ABC reported on Friday 23 October 2026. ABC…

Related markets

All world leaders ›

Politics › World leaders

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

9%chance▼ 1

Politics › World leaders

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)

189.3median

140230

Median 189.3Middle half 174.1 – 201.4

Politics › World leaders

Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)

293.8median

250340

Median 293.8Middle half 280.8 – 308.3

Politics › World leaders

Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)

197.5median

160230

Median 197.5Middle half 189.8 – 202.9

Politics › World leaders

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Feb 16, 2028even chance by

Before Nov 1, 20261%▼ 1
Before Dec 1, 20265%
Before Jan 1, 20277%

14 more

Before Feb 1, 20279%▼ 1
Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 1
Before Apr 1, 202717%▼ 1
Before May 1, 202719%▼ 2
Before Jun 1, 202725%
Before Jul 1, 202731%
Before Aug 1, 202733%
Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
Before Oct 1, 202737%
Before Nov 1, 202741%
Before Dec 1, 202741%
Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
Before Jul 1, 202857%
Before Jan 1, 202960%

Politics › World leaders

Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

18%Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Nov 1, 20265%▼ 7
Before Jan 1, 202718%▼ 2

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onGovernment of Venezuela, Reuters, Bloomberg News

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$0 (2 contracts)

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Venezuela agrees to or announces an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions