KPOW Midterms on Nov 4, 2026 at 12:00 AM EST?
-33.3median
-5020
Median -33.3Middle half -39.7 – -14.4
Install
KPOW Midterms on Nov 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST?
The odds
-33.5median
-5020
Median -33.5Middle half -40.1 – -14.4
How the odds have moved
Median: -34.5 on Oct 31, -33.5 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D+45 or redder | 95% | 91¢ | 100¢ | 5.00 | ||
| D+40 or redder | 75% | ▼ 1 | 72¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 5.00 |
| D+35 or redder | 56% | ▼ 1 | 52¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 5.00 |
| D+30 or redder | 37% | ▲ 1 | 34¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 205 |
| D+25 or redder | 34% | 29¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | ||
| D+20 or redder | 30% | 25¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | ||
| D+15 or redder | 26% | 21¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | ||
| D+10 or redder | 22% | 17¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | ||
| D+5 or redder | 19% | 14¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | ||
| Above 0 | 14% | 10¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | ||
| R+5 or redder | 11% | 6¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | ||
| R+10 or redder | 7% | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | ||
| R+15 or redder | 4% | 9¢ | $11.49 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: KPOW Midterms, PM EST
Search ›- Trump Invites Haley Stevens to Join GOP After Her Mike Rogers EndorsementNov 01, 2026 at 05:14 PM EST Nov 01, 2026 at 05:54 PM EST President Donald Trump invited Democratic Michigan Representative Haley Stevens to join the Republican Party Sunday, after she switched her United States Senate endorsement to GOP…
- Obama-Appointed Judge Rejects Trump Bid to Block Alaska Senate ResultsNov 01, 2026 at 03:55 PM EST Nov 01, 2026 at 04:02 PM EST A federal judge has dismissed the Trump administration’s attempt to block Alaska from certifying the results of its closely watched U.S. Senate election if Republican incumbent Dan…
- Raskin Responds to Trump Saying Many Don’t Know Meaning of ‘Incumbent’Nov 01, 2026 at 01:53 PM EST Nov 01, 2026 at 03:13 PM EST Democratic Representative Jamie Raskin said President Donald Trump should “speak for himself” after Trump said many people do not know what the word “incumbent” means while…
- New York Republicans bet anger at Albany can blunt a Trump backlashGOP candidates are facing a tough political environment this year with an unpopular president in the White House. New York Republicans are arguing that Albany, not President Donald Trump, is the root of voters' woes. | Yuki Iwamura/AP…
- Judge tosses DOJ lawsuit seeking to delay certification of Alaska Senate raceNovember 1, 2026 / 1:39 PM EST / CBS News A federal judge in Alaska has thrown out the Trump administration's lawsuit seeking to block certification of the state's Senate election results in this week's midterm elections if the Republican…
- Ken Paxton campaign no longer has Alamo event scheduledNovember 1, 2026 / 8:43 PM EST / CBS News Texas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton's campaign will no longer hold an event on the eve of Election Day at the Alamo, as originally advertised. The campaign has not publicly commented on…
- The accidental politician who could run Los AngelesNithya Raman didn’t plan on a political career. But an unsolicited direct message, an “Evil Elmo,” and a stubborn homelessness crisis has put her at City Hall’s door. Los Angeles mayoral candidate Nithya Raman at an October campaign event…
- Trump Reacts to Murphy Stroke Days After Senator’s ‘Insane’ Iran WarningNov 01, 2026 at 08:16 PM EST President Donald Trump reacted to news that Democratic Senator Chris Murphy suffered a stroke, days after he called a possible administration plan for renewed military action against Iran “insane.” After…
- Trump Backs Republicans Who Broke With Him as Midterms LoomNov 01, 2026 at 02:27 PM EST President Donald Trump has endorsed several Republican candidates who have publicly broken with him on key issues, prioritizing party unity as the GOP fights to maintain control of Congress in Tuesday’s midterm…
- Democrats Turn on Haley Stevens After Mike Rogers EndorsementNov 01, 2026 at 07:01 PM EST Democratic Representative Haley Stevens is facing fierce backlash from senior party figures and members of her own staff after endorsing Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s closely watched Senate race on…
- Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers are fighting to represent Michigan in the Senate. Here's what they say.November 1, 2026 / 7:45 PM EST / CBS News Control of the U.S. Senate after Tuesday's midterm elections could come down to Michigan, where a close and contentious battle has been playing out between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican…
- 60 Minutes Transcript: Candidates Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers on the Michigan Senate raceNovember 1, 2026 / 7:45 PM EST / CBS News In the home stretch of an expensive, bruising, and consequential Senate race, we went to speak to both candidates – and see them in action. The son of Egyptian immigrants, Abdul El-Dayed won the…
Related markets
All elections ›KPOW Midterms on Nov 3, 2026 at 12:00 AM EST?
-21.5median
-28-12
Median -21.5Middle half -23.6 – -19.9
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
31%None
- None31%▲ 6
- IA10%▲ 1
- IA, KS6%▼ 5
125 more
- KS4%
- All 73%▼ 1
- AK, IA, KS3%▲ 1
- AK, IA2%▲ 1
- AK2%▲ 1
- AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX2%▲ 1
- ME2%
- IA, ME1%
- IA, KS, ME1%
- OH1%
- TX1%
- IA, KS, TX1%
- IA, TX1%
- IA, OH1%
- AK, KS1%
- MI1%
- IA, KS, ME, OH, TX1%
- AK, IA, KS, OH1%
- IA, KS, OH1%
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1%
- AK, IA, KS, ME, TX1%
- AK, IA, KS, TX1%
- IA, KS, ME, TX1%
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX1%
- IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX1%
- AK, IA, KS, OH, TX1%
- IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1%
- IA, KS, ME, OH1%
- IA, KS, OH, TX1%
- IA, KS, MI1%
- KS, OH1%
- IA, MI1%▼ 1
- KS, TX1%
- IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
- AK, IA, KS, ME<1%
- AK, KS, TX<1%
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
- AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
- AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
- IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
- IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
- AK, IA, ME<1%
- AK, IA, OH<1%
- AK, IA, TX<1%
- IA, ME, MI<1%
- AK, TX<1%
- IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
- AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
- IA, ME, TX<1%
- KS, ME<1%
- IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
- IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
- AK, IA, MI<1%
- AK, KS, ME<1%
- IA, ME, OH<1%
- IA, MI, OH<1%
- IA, MI, TX<1%
- IA, OH, TX<1%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
71%Democrats Sweep
- Democrats Sweep71%▲ 1
- R Senate, D House21%▼ 2
- Republicans Sweep6%▲ 2
2 more
- D Senate, R House1%
- Other<1%
Texas Senate winner? (2026)
75%James Talarico
- James Talarico75%▲ 6
- Ken Paxton26%▼ 6
Which party will win the House in 2026?
95%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party95%▲ 1
- Republican Party5%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions