KPOW Midterms on Nov 4, 2026 at 12:00 AM EST?

Kalshi Elections Closes Wed 12:00 AM ET · $9 today · $83 traded · $83 at stake · prices read 5 h ago

The odds

-33.3median

-5020

Median -33.3Middle half -39.7 – -14.4

How the odds have moved

Median: -34.5 on Oct 31, -33.3 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
D+45 or redder	95%		91¢	100¢		5.00
D+40 or redder	76%	▲ 1	72¢	80¢	$1.25	5.00
D+35 or redder	56%		52¢	61¢	$1.64
D+30 or redder	37%		33¢	41¢	$2.44	200
D+25 or redder	34%		29¢	38¢	$2.63
D+20 or redder	30%		25¢	34¢	$2.94
D+15 or redder	26%		21¢	30¢	$3.33
D+10 or redder	22%		17¢	26¢	$3.85
D+5 or redder	19%		14¢	23¢	$4.35
Above 0	14%		10¢	18¢	$5.56
R+5 or redder	11%		6¢	15¢	$6.67
R+10 or redder	7%		3¢	11¢	$9.09
R+15 or redder	4%			9¢	$11.49

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: KPOW Midterms, AM EST

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Mark Carney on Trump, Ukraine — and those Brooks Brothers shirtsPOLITICO · 7 h ago10/30/2026 10:02 PM EDT 11/02/26 05:00 AM EST 11/01/26 06:00 AM EST 10/30/26 10:02 PM EDT 10/30/26 07:41 PM EDT 10/30/26 05:00 AM EDT 10/29/26 11:59 PM EDT 10/26/26 05:00 AM EDT 10/22/26 11:59 PM EDT
Trump Says He Would Have Won Vietnam War in a Week, Mixes Up CitiesNewsweek · 10 h agoNov 02, 2026 at 03:26 AM EST Nov 02, 2026 at 04:10 AM EST President Donald Trump said he could have won the Vietnam War in a week, but appeared to mix up cities central to the conflict. Trump was talking about his operations in Iran and…
Dem strategist: An El-Sayed win won't prove progressives can win everywherePOLITICO · 10 h ago10/30/2026 12:27 PM EDT 11/01/26 06:00 AM EST 10/30/26 10:02 PM EDT 10/30/26 07:41 PM EDT 10/30/26 05:00 AM EDT 10/29/26 11:59 PM EDT 10/26/26 05:00 AM EDT 10/22/26 11:59 PM EDT 10/21/26 05:00 AM EDT
James Talarico’s Chances of Beating Ken Paxton—What Final Texas Polls ShowNewsweek · 5 h agoNov 02, 2026 at 06:42 AM EST Nov 02, 2026 at 06:53 AM EST The race for a Senate seat in Texas may be on the verge of breaking through for the Democrats for the first time since 1988. Two closing polls show James Talarico leading Republican…
The size of Democrats’ victory Tuesday could help determine their futurePOLITICO · 9 h agoA POLITICO Poll found that Democrats may see a decisive victory as a mandate to run more progressive candidates. 11/01/2026 10:00 AM EST For Democrats, the size of their victory matters. Progressives and moderates have been sparring all…
US Travel Warnings as Europe Protests Spread in Portugal, GermanyNewsweek · 8 h agoNov 02, 2026 at 05:40 AM EST Nov 02, 2026 at 05:56 AM EST The U.S. government has issued a travel warning for Americans in Portugal as protests over living costs and housing affordability continue across Europe, with demonstrations also…
Republicans are privately blaming Trump, even if they won’t say it out loudPOLITICO · 8 h ago"There was a point earlier this year where we really felt like we could defy history. And then Trump bombed Iran,” said one House Republican. 11/02/2026 5:00 AM EST Republicans are already privately blaming President Donald Trump as they…
Are you registered to vote for the 2026 midterms in Pennsylvania? Here's how to check.CBS News · 7 h agoNovember 2, 2026 / 7:00 AM EST / CBS Pittsburgh The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on Nov. 3, 2026, and here's how to check your voter registration in Pennsylvania. Once you input that information, you'll be given your…
Ukraine and Russia Hit By Hoax Nuclear Threat Alerts After CyberattacksNewsweek · 5 h agoNov 02, 2026 at 04:37 AM EST Millions of people in Russia and Ukraine received fake emergency alerts late on Sunday, including for nuclear threats, as authorities in both countries said their warning systems had been hacked. Ukraine's air…
How to check if you are registered to vote in MarylandCBS News · 6 h agoNovember 2, 2026 / 7:30 AM EST / CBS Baltimore There are two main ways to check whether you are registered to vote in the state of Maryland -- by using an online tool or by calling the State Board of Elections. To make a call, you can…
El-Sayed Issues Data Center Warning as Voters Are ‘Deathly Afraid’Newsweek · 9 h agoNov 02, 2026 at 04:55 AM EST Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed has said that some Michigan voters are "deathly afraid" of the rapid growth of data centers. Artificial intelligence and the rapid construction of data centers have…
Democrats’ Strategy of Backing Independents Faces ReckoningNewsweek · 5 h agoNov 02, 2026 at 05:00 AM EST Democrats’ strategy of supporting independents in traditionally conservative states, rather than running their own candidate, faces a reckoning in this year’s midterms, as difficult headwinds for Republicans…

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Elections

KPOW Midterms on Nov 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST?

-33.5median

-5020

Median -33.5Middle half -40.1 – -14.4

Elections

KPOW Midterms on Nov 3, 2026 at 12:00 AM EST?

-21.5median

-28-12

Median -21.5Middle half -23.6 – -19.9

Elections › Senate

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

31%None

None31%▲ 6
IA10%▲ 1
IA, KS6%▼ 5

125 more

KS4%
All 73%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS3%▲ 1
AK, IA2%▲ 1
AK2%▲ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX2%▲ 1
ME2%
IA, ME1%
IA, KS, ME1%
OH1%
TX1%
IA, KS, TX1%
IA, TX1%
IA, OH1%
AK, KS1%
MI1%
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX1%
AK, IA, KS, OH1%
IA, KS, OH1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX1%
AK, IA, KS, TX1%
IA, KS, ME, TX1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX1%
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX1%
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1%
IA, KS, ME, OH1%
IA, KS, OH, TX1%
IA, KS, MI1%
KS, OH1%
IA, MI1%▼ 1
KS, TX1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME<1%
AK, KS, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME<1%
AK, IA, OH<1%
AK, IA, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI<1%
AK, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
IA, ME, TX<1%
KS, ME<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI<1%
AK, KS, ME<1%
IA, ME, OH<1%
IA, MI, OH<1%
IA, MI, TX<1%
IA, OH, TX<1%

Elections › President 2028

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

71%Democrats Sweep

Democrats Sweep71%▲ 1
R Senate, D House21%▼ 2
Republicans Sweep6%▲ 2

2 more

D Senate, R House1%
Other<1%

Elections › Senate

Texas Senate winner? (2026)

75%James Talarico

James Talarico75%▲ 6
Ken Paxton26%▼ 6

Elections › President 2028

Which party will win the House in 2026?

95%Democratic Party

Democratic Party95%▲ 1
Republican Party5%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onPyth - KPOW Midterms

Trading closesNov 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Traded$83 (210 contracts)

Today$9

This week$83

At stake$83

Followed here sinceOct 31, 2026

The rules

If the 15-minute time-weighted average of the Kalshi American Power Index - Midterms (KPOW Midterms) ending at 12:00 AM EST on November 4, 2026 is at least -45.0, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions