Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

Polymarket Elections › Senate Closes tomorrow 6:59 PM ET · $13.7M today · $36.1M traded · $3.9M at stake · prices read just now

The odds

31%None

None31%▲ 6
IA11%▲ 1
IA, KS6%▼ 5
KS4%
All 73%
AK, IA, KS3%▲ 1
AK, IA2%▲ 1
AK2%▲ 1
ME2%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX1%▲ 1
IA, ME1%
IA, KS, ME1%

116 more

OH1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX1%▲ 1
TX1%
IA, KS, TX1%
IA, TX1%
IA, OH1%
IA, KS, ME, TX1%
AK, KS1%
MI1%
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX1%
AK, IA, KS, OH1%
AK, IA, TX1%
IA, KS, OH1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1%
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX1%
AK, IA, KS, TX1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX1%
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1%
IA, KS, ME, OH1%
IA, KS, OH, TX1%
IA, KS, MI1%
KS, OH1%
AK, IA, ME1%
AK, IA, OH1%
AK, KS, TX1%
IA, MI1%▼ 1
KS, TX1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
IA, ME, TX<1%
AK, TX<1%
KS, ME<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI<1%
AK, KS, ME<1%
IA, ME, OH<1%
IA, MI, OH<1%
IA, MI, TX<1%
KS, ME, OH<1%
KS, ME, TX<1%
AK, ME<1%
KS, MI<1%
ME, MI<1%
ME, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
IA, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%

How the odds have moved

None: 24% on Oct 31, 31% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
None	31%	▲ 6	31¢	32¢	$3.13	$3.8M
IA	11%	▲ 1	11¢	11¢	$8.77	$1.5M
IA, KS	6%	▼ 5	6¢	7¢	$14.29	$2.1M
KS	4%		4¢	4¢	$25.00	$249K
All 7	3%		3¢	4¢	$25.00	$272K
AK, IA, KS	3%	▲ 1	3¢	3¢	$38.46	$351K
AK, IA	2%	▲ 1	2¢	2¢	$41.67	$447K
AK	2%	▲ 1	2¢	2¢	$45.45	$287K
ME	2%		2¢	2¢	$62.50	$336K
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX	1%	▲ 1	1¢	2¢	$50.00	$296K
IA, ME	1%		1¢	2¢	$58.82	$329K
IA, KS, ME	1%		1¢	1¢	$83.33	$238K
OH	1%		1¢	1¢	$83.33	$364K
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX	1%	▲ 1	1¢	1¢	$71.43	$202K
TX	1%		1¢	1¢	$71.43	$271K
IA, KS, TX	1%		1¢	1¢	$90.91	$158K
IA, TX	1%		1¢	1¢	$83.33	$23K
IA, OH	1%		1¢	1¢	$100.00	$353K
IA, KS, ME, TX	1%		1¢	1¢		$19K
AK, KS	1%		1¢	1¢		$262K
MI	1%		1¢	1¢		$434K
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX	1%		1¢	1¢	$100.00	$172K
AK, IA, KS, OH	1%		1¢	1¢		$199K
AK, IA, TX	1%		0¢	1¢	$83.33	$165K
IA, KS, OH	1%		1¢	1¢		$195K
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX	1%		1¢	1¢		$226K
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX	1%		1¢	1¢		$159K
AK, IA, KS, TX	1%		1¢	1¢		$157K
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX	1%		1¢	1¢		$184K
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX	1%		1¢	1¢		$154K
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX	1%		1¢	1¢		$155K
IA, KS, ME, OH	1%		1¢	1¢		$18K
IA, KS, OH, TX	1%		1¢	1¢		$13K
IA, KS, MI	1%		1¢	1¢		$679K
KS, OH	1%		1¢	1¢		$227K
AK, IA, ME	1%		0¢	1¢		$281K
AK, IA, OH	1%		1¢	1¢		$198K
AK, KS, TX	1%		1¢	1¢		$238K
IA, MI	1%	▼ 1	1¢	1¢		$304K
KS, TX	1%		1¢	1¢		$172K
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH	<1%		0¢	1¢		$175K
AK, IA, KS, ME	<1%		0¢	1¢		$196K
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH	<1%		0¢	1¢		$186K
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI	<1%		0¢	1¢		$203K
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH	<1%		0¢	1¢		$191K
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH	<1%		0¢	1¢		$178K
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX	<1%		0¢	1¢		$274K
IA, ME, MI	<1%		0¢	1¢		$196K
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX	<1%		0¢	1¢		$185K
AK, IA, KS, MI	<1%		0¢	1¢		$19K
IA, ME, TX	<1%		0¢	1¢		$149K
AK, TX	<1%		0¢	1¢		$241K
KS, ME	<1%		0¢	1¢		$221K
IA, KS, ME, MI	<1%		0¢	0¢		$181K
IA, KS, MI, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$2K
IA, KS, MI, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$151K
AK, IA, MI	<1%		0¢	0¢		$191K
AK, KS, ME	<1%		0¢	0¢		$225K
IA, ME, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$186K
IA, MI, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$201K
IA, MI, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$162K
KS, ME, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$2K
KS, ME, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$201K
AK, ME	<1%		0¢	0¢		$208K
KS, MI	<1%		0¢	0¢		$34K
ME, MI	<1%		0¢	0¢		$215K
ME, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$32K
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$1.2M
IA, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$127K
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$15K
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$304K
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$146K
AK, IA, ME, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$183K
AK, IA, ME, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$139K
AK, IA, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$155K
AK, KS, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$257K
IA, ME, MI, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$394K
IA, ME, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$148K
AK, KS, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$212K
KS, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$143K
AK, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$202K
ME, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$226K
OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$188K
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$213K
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$266K
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$24K
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$207K
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$218K
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$218K
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$257K
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$122K
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$204K
AK, IA, ME, MI	<1%		0¢	0¢		$184K
AK, IA, MI, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$264K
AK, IA, MI, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$183K
AK, KS, ME, MI	<1%		0¢	0¢		$23K
AK, KS, ME, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$229K
AK, KS, ME, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$188K
AK, KS, MI, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$229K
AK, KS, MI, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$183K
AK, ME, MI, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$242K
AK, ME, MI, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$195K
AK, ME, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$166K
AK, MI, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$204K
IA, ME, MI, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$181K
IA, MI, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$111K
KS, ME, MI, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$273K
KS, ME, MI, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$187K
KS, ME, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$301K
KS, MI, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$149K
ME, MI, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$151K
AK, KS, MI	<1%		0¢	0¢		$235K
AK, ME, MI	<1%		0¢	0¢		$298K
AK, ME, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$259K
AK, ME, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$187K
AK, MI, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$257K
AK, MI, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$181K
AK, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$163K
KS, ME, MI	<1%		0¢	0¢		$212K
KS, MI, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$201K
KS, MI, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$151K
ME, MI, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$202K
ME, MI, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$242K
ME, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$172K
MI, OH, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$204K
AK, MI	<1%		0¢	0¢		$225K
MI, OH	<1%		0¢	0¢		$224K
MI, TX	<1%		0¢	0¢		$233K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Senate Swing States

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 3, 2026 6:59 PM ET

Traded$36.1M

Today$13.7M

This week$36.1M

At stake$3.9M

Followed here sinceOct 30, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its resu

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions