How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?

Kalshi Elections Closes Oct 31, 2027 · $43.4K traded · $8.5K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

944.1median

4001,500

Median 944.1Middle half 783.3 – 1,190

How the odds have moved

Median: 948.3 on Oct 20, 944.1 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 500	86%		85¢	86¢	$1.16	26.6K
Above 600	81%		80¢	81¢	$1.23	5.0K
Above 700	78%		77¢	78¢	$1.28	8.4K
Above 800	75%		74¢	75¢	$1.33	7.5K
Above 900	57%		57¢	58¢	$1.72	1.3K
Above 1,000	41%	▲ 3	40¢	41¢	$2.44	878
Above 1,100	30%		29¢	30¢	$3.33	8.5K
Above 1,200	25%		24¢	25¢	$4.00	1.3K
Above 1,300	21%		20¢	21¢	$4.76	2.1K
Above 1,400	14%		14¢	15¢	$6.67	1.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Idaho

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Idaho Sunshine Report reveals fundraising gaps among North Idaho legislative candidatesCoeur d'Alene Press · 2 days agoData in the Idaho Sunshine Report shows major differences in funding among North Idaho’s state congressional candidates. Many candidates seek individual support rather than business support, while some seek neither and have done little to…
Idaho Liberty Bell coming to Coeur d’AleneCoeur d'Alene Press · 27 h agoIdaho’s replica of the Liberty Bell sits on the back of a Ford F-450 flatbed truck in front of the State Capitol. IDAHO STATE TREASURER'S OFFICE Some guests are literally about to arrive in Coeur d’Alene with bells on. Well, at least one…
Idaho lawmakers weigh $3M in drug prevention, treatment proposalsBonner County Daily Bee · 28 h agoThe legislative Joint Millennium Fund Committee, which oversees the endowment, heard 10 proposals Friday for use of the settlement money, which must go toward drug and alcohol prevention. As of Sept. 30, the fund’s balance was nearly $43.5…
PBS's Abortion Correspondent Goes to Idaho Again to Push for 'Abortion Care'Newsbusters · 12 h agoIs PBS’s Sarah Varney a “health care” correspondent, or abortion correspondent? She’s obsessively covered the state abortion-ban beat since Roe v. Wade was overturned, from Arkansas to Texas gathering sad stories on abortion denials. PBS’s…
Idaho Congressional candidates talk public lands, rising healthcare costsIdaho Press · 37 h agoIncumbent Republican Rep. Mike Simpson (right) is seeking his 15th term after first being elected to the U.S. House in 1998. His challengers include Democrat Ellie Gilbreath (left) and Independent Tripp Hutchinson (center. As U.S. Rep…
Republican Jim Risch faces independent Todd Achilles in the race to represent Idaho in the U.S. SenateYahoo News · 12 h agoOct. 25—HAYDEN, Idaho — With Election Day approaching, Bonnita Zipperer offered her neighbors a rare opportunity: stop by her house to meet Todd Achilles, an independent candidate running to unseat U.S. Sen. Jim Risch, the three-term…
What’s up with the Idaho Senate race?NonStop Local KHQ · 2 days agoIDAHO - It’s a trend that’s taken on new life the election cycle, independent candidates running against establishment backed big names. Orion Donovan Smith, who's from Washington and writes for the The Spokesman-Review via the Report for…
Massachusetts and Idaho put guns on the ballot. One seeks to restrict them, the other to honor them104.5 WOKV · 18 h agoParked in his truck along a rural Idaho highway on his way to an elk hunt, Neill Goodfellow pondered a question that will appear on his November ballot: which of six historic firearms to choose as the official state gun? Goodfellow is…
Opinion: Idaho voters deserve trustworthy informationPost Register · 3 days agoIdaho families face serious challenges. War, tariffs and cuts to health coverage are making life more expensive for everyone. That makes your voting decisions all the more critical this year. Unfortunately, misleading ads are pouring into…
Idaho Matters Reporter Roundtable: October 23, 2026Boise State Public Radio · 3 days agoIt’s Friday, which means it's time for our Reporter Roundtable when Idaho Matters gets you up to date on all the news that made headlines this past week. More than 70 female smokejumpers gathered in McCall for a reunion. Idaho voters will…
Idaho Sec. of State says Prop 1 ads followed campaign finance lawsBoise State Public Radio · 2 days agoA recent TV ad supporting Proposition 1 followed all campaign finance laws, according to the Idaho Secretary of State’s office. The controversy over the ad focused on how it was paid for. Idahoans United for Women and Families, which…
If Passed, Idaho's Proposition 1 Would Allow Abortion Before Viability and Protect Contraception and Fertility Care DecisionsMedical Daily · 42 h agoFor Idaho families, the vote touches everyday medical decisions, including how doctors handle a dangerous pregnancy, how patients get care after a miscarriage, and whether some people still travel out of state for care. The measure is also…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onIdaho Department of Water Resources

Trading closesOct 31, 2027 9:59 AM ET

Traded$43.4K (62,785 contracts)

At stake$8.5K

In the news11 headlines today, 138 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call is above 500 as of October 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions