Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world For Sun 11:59 PM ET · $226K today · $3.4M traded · $668K at stake · prices read 8 min ago

The odds

17%Ilija Srdanović

Ilija Srdanović17%▼ 9
Vladan Đokić2%▲ 2
Aleksandar Vučić2%
Ana Brnabić<1%
Ivica Dačić<1%
Miloš Vučević<1%
Đuro Macut<1%
Stefan Krkobabić<1%
Branimir Jovanović<1%
Dragan Đilas<1%

How the odds have moved

Ilija Srdanović: 22% on Oct 20, 17% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 25, 11 PM ETIlija Srdanović: 9% → 25%
- Serbian leader Aleksandar Vučić concedes defeat in fiercely contested parliamentary electionthe Guardian · 37 h ago
- Aleksandar Vucic concedes defeat in Serbia's parliamentary election, marking political shiftCBS News · 36 h ago
- Know How Serbia’s Student Protest Movement Ended Aleksandar Vučić’s RuleOutlook India · 29 h ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Ilija Srdanović	17%	▼ 9	14¢	20¢	$5.00	$474K
Vladan Đokić	2%	▲ 2	1¢	3¢	$34.48	$83.4K
Aleksandar Vučić	2%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	$2.3M
Ana Brnabić	<1%		0¢	1¢		$85K
Ivica Dačić	<1%		0¢	0¢		$84.7K
Miloš Vučević	<1%			0¢		$20.8K
Đuro Macut	<1%			0¢		$25.3K
Stefan Krkobabić	<1%			0¢		$52.8K
Branimir Jovanović	<1%			0¢		$16.5K
Dragan Đilas	<1%			0¢		$35.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Prime Minister of Serbia, Ilija Srdanović, Vladan Đokić

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Drone footage shows crowds in Belgrade celebrating defeat of Aleksandar Vučić – videothe Guardian · 23 h agoHuge crowds gathered in Slavija Square in Belgrade to celebrate after Serbia's long-serving leader, Aleksandar Vučić, conceded defeat in an election. Late on Sunday night, people thronged the streets after a two-year student-led opposition…
Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s autocrat, loses to a bunch of studentsHindustan Times · 4 h agoYoungsters celebrate after Aleksandar Vucic, leader of the right-wing Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) conceded defeat in the parliamentary election in Belgrade, Serbia, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026.
Aleksandar Vucic concedes defeat in Serbia's parliamentary election, marking political shiftCBS News · 36 h agoOctober 25, 2026 / 5:30 PM EDT / AP The long-serving strongman leader of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, conceded defeat on Sunday in an election that pitted him and his right-wing party against a diverse student-led opposition movement that…
Serbian leader Aleksandar Vučić concedes defeat in fiercely contested parliamentary electionthe Guardian · 37 h agoVučić’s 12-year reign looks to have been ended by record turnout of voters in election provoked by student-led protests Serbia’s veteran leader Aleksandar Vučić has conceded defeat to the student movement, ushering in a seismic political…
Rise of a student movement in Serbia; Aleksandar Vučić concedes defeatThe Business Standard · 21 h agoA sign that a 12-year rule in Serbia may be coming to an end! Following an anti-corruption movement led by students, Aleksandar Vučić has conceded defeat in the snap elections held on October 25. Preliminary estimates suggest that the…
After Aleksandar Vucic’s defeat, Serbia waits to hear how student-backed leaders will ruleThe Irish Times · 14 h agoSerbia woke to a new era on Monday after a student-backed protest movement unseated long-time leader ‌Aleksandar Vucic in a landslide election that sparked nationwide celebrations, although few had an idea of how they would govern. Tens of…
Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic concedes defeat to the student-led movement in a seismic political shiftChicago Tribune · 22 h agoBELGRADE, Serbia — The long-serving strongman leader of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, conceded defeat on Sunday in an election that pitted him and his right-wing party against a diverse student-led opposition movement that spent two years…
Putin’s Curse? Why Aleksandar Vucic May Have Lost Serbia’s Election Because Of Russian PresidentNews18 · 28 h agoRussian President Vladimir Putin’s backing could not shield Serbian leader Aleksandar Vucic from a historic electoral defeat, as a student-led opposition movement emerged victorious in the country’s snap parliamentary election after nearly…
Serbia’s Student List preparing for talks on forming government despite no clear leaderthe Guardian · 17 h agoNon-hierarchical movement is seeking to ‘rebuild society’ in Balkan country after years of authoritarian rule Serbia’s triumphant but untested Student List movement is preparing to start talks on forming a government capable of reversing…
Serbia’s strongman leader Aleksandar Vucic concedes defeat to student-led movementBreakingNews · 27 h agoThe long-serving strongman leader of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, conceded defeat on Sunday in an election that pitted him and his right-wing party against a diverse student-led opposition movement that spent two years protesting his…
Aleksandar Vucic defeated in Serbia election as student protest movement claims historic winThe Independent · 25 h agoSerbia’s long-standing strongman leader, Aleksandar Vucic, admitted defeat on Sunday following an election against a broad, student-led opposition movement that had demonstrated against his government for two years. This represents a major…
Know How Serbia’s Student Protest Movement Ended Aleksandar Vučić’s RuleOutlook India · 29 h agoSerbia’s student-led Student List has defeated Aleksandar Vučić in snap parliamentary elections after months of protests sparked by a deadly railway station collapse in Novi Sad in 2024 Student List defeats Vučić after protests over 16…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

MeasuredOct 25, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Trading closesOct 28, 2026 12:12 AM ET

Traded$3.4M

Today$226K

This week$1.9M

At stake$668K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official inform

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions