Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.1median
140230
Median 189.1Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
Install
How many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?
The odds
1.50median
0.505.50
Median 1.50Middle half 1 – 2.21
How the odds have moved
Median: 1.50 on Oct 19, 1.50 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% | 47¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | ||
| 2 | 35% | 32¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | ||
| 3 | 9% | 5¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | ||
| 4 | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | ||
| 5 | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.5K | ||
| Above 5 | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 1.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Prime Minister, Issuance
Search ›-
India's Narendra Modi sworn in for third term as prime ministerJune 9, 2024 / 11:11 AM EDT / AP India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office for a third consecutive term on Sunday, but it may hold more challenges for the popular-but-polarizing leader than his past decade in power. His Hindu… -
One person killed in shooting near Paris, French Prime Minister saysMorning Rundown: Trump predicts GOP defeat in key race, Airbnb sets new rules for hosts, and World Series begins as lockout looms At least one person was killed and four people were injured in a shooting near Paris, the French Prime… -
Prime Minister swaps dispatch box for GoggleboxAndy Burnham is joined by Liverpool City Region mayor Steve Rotheram on the show Andy Burnham is to star in a special edition of Channel 4 hit show Gogglebox. The prime minister will be joined by Liverpool City Region Mayor Steve Rotheram… -
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu orders IDF, Mossad to pursue overthrow of Iranian regimeIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that he had directed the Israel Defense Forces, Mossad and other security branches to pursue the overthrow of the Iranian regime, calling it the only way to eliminate the nuclear… -
Jeremy Clarkson issues brutal 4-word verdict on Andy Burnham as Prime MinisterThe broadcaster laid into the PM in his column suggesting the Labour leader would be better suited to working on a local council. Jeremy Clarkson has laid into Andy Burnham, saying the Prime Minister is "out of his depth", claiming he'd be… -
The Shahbandar who became Prime MinisterFrom Tunku Azizah Aminah Maimunah Iskandariah Before Tun Abdul Razak Hussein became the Prime Minister, he was already a Shahbandar. Before the nation entrusted him with its government, the Sultan of Pahang had entrusted him with an office… -
Somalia’s prime minister arrives in JeddahSomalia’s prime minister arrives in Jeddah - The two countries are working to ensure the security of international waterways and freedom of navigation JEDDAH: Somalia’s Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre arrived in Jeddah on Saturday. He was… -
Prime Minister Narendra Modi witnesses IAF aircraft formations in VaranasiShorts News:Prime Minister Narendra Modi witnesses IAF aircraft formations in Varanasi Prime Minister Narendra Modi witnesses IAF aircraft formations in Varanasi -
How Israel elects its prime minister without voters choosing a candidateIsrael is set to hold parliamentary elections on October 27 to elect a new Knesset, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing the prospect of losing power amid growing public discontent. The election will be the country's first… -
Prime Minister: Developing unique brands for Vietnam's cultural industry.(Chinhphu.vn) - On the afternoon of October 24, the National Assembly held group discussions on the draft Law on the Development of Cultural Industries; the draft Law on Food Safety (amended); and the draft Law amending and supplementing a… -
Prime Minister of Greece Receives Archbishop Makarios of AustraliaThe National Herald ATHENS – Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis met on October 23 at the Maximos Mansion with Archbishop Makarios of Australia. The discussion focused on the social and philanthropic work of the Archdiocese, Greece’s ties… -
Polish Prime Minister visits Hoi An Ancient TownOn October 24, as part of his official visit to Vietnam, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and a high-level Polish delegation visited Hoi An Ancient Town in the central city of Da Nang. Ahead of the upcoming official visit to Vietnam by…
Related markets
All world leaders ›Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
293.4median
250340
Median 293.4Middle half 280.8 – 308.3
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.3median
160230
Median 197.3Middle half 189.8 – 202.7
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 27, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20261%▼ 1
- Before Dec 1, 20266%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20278%
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20279%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 2
- Before Apr 1, 202718%
- Before May 1, 202719%▼ 2
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202731%
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202856%
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
185.8median
140230
Median 185.8Middle half 176.3 – 197.5
Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
17%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20266%▼ 6
- Before Jan 1, 202717%▼ 3
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions