Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)
6.25median
211
Median 6.25Middle half 5.46 – 6.79
Install
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1)
The odds
5.93median
211
Median 5.93Middle half 4.44 – 7.34
How the odds have moved
Median: 6.07 on Oct 25, 5.93 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3 | 95% | 94¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 2.7K | |
| Above 4 | 79% | 78¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | ||
| Above 5 | 71% | 70¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 4.00 | |
| Above 6 | 49% | ▼ 3 | 48¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | 410 |
| Above 7 | 31% | ▲ 1 | 30¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 1.7K |
| Above 8 | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 2.3K | |
| Above 9 | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 1.6K | |
| Above 10 | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 2.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Peak
Search ›-
Trump touts booming economy, control in Strait of Hormuz as GOP fights to hold CongressPresident Donald Trump joins 'Sunday Morning Futures' to discuss the economy, midterm elections, Iran and more. Trump touts booming economy, control in Strait of Hormuz as GOP fights to hold Congress President Donald Trump joins 'Sunday… -
CENTCOM chief declares: Strait of Hormuz is free from Iranian minesThe commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), Adm. Brad Cooper, visited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, as US forces reach the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since summer… -
Maritime Crisis Deepens In Strait Of Hormuz As Nearly 500 Ships Stranded, Another Oil Tanker Attacked Near OmanFahad Shabbir (@FahadShabbir) Published October 26, 2026 | 12:33 AM Movement of 492 vessels near Fujairah, Dubai and Oman has been affected as an international maritime security body warns of a serious risk of further attacks in the Strait… -
CENTCOM Commander Visits Strait of Hormuz during Milestone WeekSTRAIT OF HORMUZ — The commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) visited the Strait of Hormuz, Oct. 25, as U.S. forces reach the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since summer… - CENTCOM's Commander Conducts an Inspection Flight in Strait of HormuzBy The Maritime Executive 2026-10-25 16:33:41 In a demonstration of confidence in the control Central Command exercises over the Strait of Hormuz, Commander CENTCOM Admiral Brad Cooper has made a low-flying tour of the Strait of Hormuz in…
-
Oil rises after attacks target vessels near Strait of HormuzReviewed by Rami Haddad, Editor-in-Chief · Last update: 2026.07.07 Oil prices moved higher on Tuesday after reports of attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz renewed concerns about potential disruptions to shipping through one of the… - Iran warns Strait of Hormuz will never return to previous arrangementsTEHRAN — Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz would no longer operate under its previous arrangements following the war with the United States and Israel, warning that the conflict had fundamentally…
- Iran Offers to Reopen Strait of Hormuz if US Lifts BlockadeIran has reportedly offered to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports, according to Al Arabiya. The report said Tehran conveyed the proposal to Washington…
- Iran says resumption of war with US would not change its mind, with Strait of Hormuz 'no longer the same'Abbas Araghchi says more bombing from the US won't impact Iran. (Reuters: Denis Balibouse) A potential resumption of Iran's war with Israel and the United States would not change Tehran's position, according to Foreign Minister Abbas…
-
IRGC claims full control over Strait of Hormuz as Trump threatens fresh military strikesIran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Saturday claimed full control over the Strait of Hormuz and warned that it would not allow US military vessels to enter the Persian Gulf. The warning came after President Donald Trump… -
Attacks on commercial shipping in strait of Hormuz hit record high in October| Gulf Times Gulf Times Choose a section, type your search topic and how to match it, and set a date range from the start date to the end date, then press Search. Attacks on commercial shipping in strait of Hormuz hit record high in… -
Forty Iranian sailors rescued off Sri Lanka coast after medical emergenciesSri Lanka's foreign ministry says it has coordinated efforts to treat and repatriate 40 Iranian sailors suffering from unspecified medical emergencies in international waters off the island's southeastern coast. Ministry spokesperson…
Related markets
All middle east ›Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
57%Gadi Eizenkot
- Gadi Eizenkot57%▲ 7
- Benjamin Netanyahu26%▼ 3
- Naftali Bennett12%▼ 4
16 more
- Avigdor Lieberman2%
- Moshe Feiglin<1%
- Israel Katz<1%
- Yossi Cohen<1%
- Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
- Ofer Winter<1%
- Yair Lapid<1%
- Benny Gantz<1%
- Yair Golan<1%
- Gideon Sa’ar<1%
- Yariv Levin<1%
- Yoaz Hendel<1%
- Amir Ohana<1%
- Gilad Erdan<1%
- Ayelet Shaked<1%
- Nir Barkat<1%
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
68%October 22
- October 2268%
- October 2468%
- October 2868%▲ 5
6 more
- October 3168%▲ 3
- November 868%▲ 6
- November 1568%▲ 6
- November 2268%▲ 5
- November 3068%▲ 4
- December 3168%▲ 1
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
73%October 24
- October 2473%▲ 1
- October 2773%▲ 4
- October 3173%▲ 5
3 more
- November 1573%▲ 1
- November 3073%▲ 3
- December 3173%▼ 1
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
93%October 21
- October 2193%
- October 3193%▲ 5
- November 3093%▲ 3
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
35%December 31
- March 3129%▲ 1
- October 3129%▼ 2
- November 3029%
1 more
- December 3135%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions