Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/19 - 10/25)
45%October 21
- October 2145%▼ 3
- October 2316%▲ 2
- October 1915%
4 more
- October 2210%
- October 207%▲ 1
- October 243%
- October 252%▼ 3
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Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/26 - 11/1)
The odds
14%October 26
- October 2614%
- October 2714%
- October 2814%
- October 2914%
- October 3014%
- October 3114%
- November 114%
How the odds have moved
October 26: 14% on Oct 24, 14% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 26 | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 252 | |
| October 27 | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | ||
| October 28 | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | ||
| October 29 | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | ||
| October 30 | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | ||
| October 31 | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | ||
| November 1 | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Peak Strait of Hormuz
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A Netanyahu defeat would make Iran war harder for the U.S.Dania Arayssi, Senior Analyst at New Lines Institute explains how a Netanyahu election loss could significantly complicate a U.S. intervention in Iran, as Washington relies heavily on Israeli intelligence and partnership to avoid entering… -
US has plans for major Iran strikes if Trump choosesUS forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials. “It will be a big effort,” one… -
Forty Iranian sailors rescued off Sri Lanka coast after medical emergenciesSri Lanka's foreign ministry says it has coordinated efforts to treat and repatriate 40 Iranian sailors suffering from unspecified medical emergencies in international waters off the island's southeastern coast. Ministry spokesperson… -
New threats could push US and Iran toward warThe US director of national intelligence warned that Iran was in the “advanced stages” of planning attacks against American officials abroad, prompting personnel evacuations and heightening the risk of a return to all-out war. US President… -
Iran ramping up efforts to target Americans, intelligence warns‘The Big Weekend Show’ co-hosts discuss President Donald Trump’s options for dealing with Iran as intelligence warns the regime may be ramping up efforts to target Americans. Iran ramping up efforts to target Americans, intelligence warns… -
Delegations meet in Iran with Middle East on edge over potential for renewed fightingThe talks come as many in Iran are girding themselves for the possible return to a return to all-out war, as Israeli and American leaders have been sharpening their threats ahead of pending elections in both countries, while Iranian… -
Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: ReportFox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane discusses reports that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program during 'Sunday Morning Futures.' ... Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: Report Fox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane… -
Iran says it's prepared to go back to war amid threat from the U.S. and Israel?Iran is preparing for a potential attack from the U.S. and Israel after the midterms. Iran says it's prepared to go back to war amid threat from the U.S. and Israel ?Iran is preparing for a potential attack from the U.S. and Israel after… -
US intel warns Iran is planning lethal plots against AmericansLexington Institute vice president Rebecca Grant and national security strategist Jake Sotiriadis join ‘Fox News Live’ to discuss warnings that Iran is in advanced stages of planning lethal plots against Americans. US intel warns Iran is… -
Trump RIPS Obama: Iran thought he was a SUCKER!President Donald Trump sharply criticized Barack Obama's previous JCPOA deal with Iran, calling it the 'worst and dumbest deal' he has ever seen. Trump RIPS Obama: Iran thought he was a SUCKER! President Donald Trump sharply criticized… -
Trump weighing options on Iran: Make a deal or finish them off‘The Big Weekend Show’ co-hosts discuss President Donald Trump’s options for dealing with Iran as intelligence warns the regime may be ramping up efforts to target Americans. Trump weighing options on Iran: Make a deal or finish them off… -
Iranians fear possible return to all-out war as US and Israeli elections approachSome civilians are preparing to evacuate Tehran. People look at a billboard installation featuring an actor portraying President Donald Trump behind bars as the screen shows portraits of some school boys who were killed when their school…
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68%October 22
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- October 2468%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions