US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
67%October 22
- October 2267%▼ 2
- October 2467%▼ 3
- October 2867%▼ 2
6 more
- October 3167%▼ 2
- November 867%▼ 2
- November 1567%▲ 1
- November 2267%▲ 2
- November 3067%▲ 3
- December 3167%▲ 1
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How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?
The odds
17%Above 30
20130
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 30 | 17% | 16¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 17.0K | |
| Above 40 | 13% | 12¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 61.1K | |
| Above 50 | 11% | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 16.0K | |
| Above 60 | 5% | 3¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 38.1K | |
| Above 70 | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 23.1K | |
| Above 80 | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 14.2K | |
| Above 90 | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 20.0K | |
| Above 100 | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 12.6K | |
| Above 110 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 541 | |
| Above 120 | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Hormuz
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.