Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.1median
140230
Median 189.1Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
Install
Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term? (Ending Jun 3, 2030)
The odds
45%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 49% on Oct 20, 45% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45% | 42¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | 23.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, Ending
Search ›- South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating rises to 37.3% — Korea HeraldUA.NEWS South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating rises to 37.3% — Korea Herald In South Korea, President Lee Jae-myung’s job approval rating rose to 37.3% after declining for two consecutive weeks. According to a Realmeter…
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North Korea prepares to restart propaganda loudspeakers as ties sour with SouthKim Yo-jong, sister of Kim Jong-un, issues warning after inspecting border fortifications against backdrop of rising tensions Propaganda loudspeakers aimed at South Korea will be ready to restart within days along the entire border, Kim… -
South Korea to withdraw some diplomatic staff from Ukraine amid POW disputeSeoul will withdraw some diplomatic personnel from Ukraine amid deteriorating relations with Kyiv following the disclosure of a transfer of North Korean prisoners of war (POWs) to South Korea, Yonhap news agency reported on Oct. 20, citing… -
North Korea's Kim Yo Jong warns South Korea, says border loudspeakers to be ready within daysPublished - October 22, 2026 03:30 am IST - Seol North Korea will place anti-South Korea loudspeakers on standby along the entire border within days and has put new countermeasures on alert, Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of North… -
Seoul vows 'resolute punishment' after North Korea threatens new border measuresSEOUL: South Korea on Tuesday vowed a stern response if North Korea acts on threats to strengthen its military posture along the border, which have fueled tensions on the Korean Peninsula. In a statement, Seoul's Defence Ministry expressed… -
South Korea Removes Loudspeakers Along Border With North KoreaThe administration of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has started removing the loudspeakers used to blast propaganda information about the outside world into North Korea. The Ministry of National Defense said in a statement on Monday… -
US says wartime command transfer to South Korea remains conditions basedEditor's note: this story was translated from the original VOA Korean article. The United States has reiterated that wartime operational control, or OPCON, of allied forces on the Korean Peninsula will transition to South Korea only after… -
North Korea threatens a ‘counterattack immediately’ warning ‘no mercy’ to SeoulNorth Korea has threatened to launch immediate military counterattacks against South Korean forces and announced plans to resume propaganda loudspeaker broadcasts along the border, escalating tensions between the two countries after weeks… -
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung Appoints Shin Jin-chang as FSC Vice ChairmanBorn in 1970 in Geumsan, South Chungcheong Province, Shin graduated from Wooshin High School and Seoul National University's business school. He earned a master's degree in international finance from the University of Birmingham in the… -
North Korea to activate anti-South loudspeakers along borderBy Joyce Lee and Kyu-seok Shim The move threatens to reverse one of South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s most-touted achievements in easing tensions with Pyongyang after his administration halted South Korea’s broadcasts and dismantled… -
Pentagon reaffirms conditions-based OPCON transition to S. Korea amid debate over timingNational Pentagon reaffirms conditions-based OPCON transition to S. Korea amid debate over timing Published : Oct. 21, 2026 - 08:44:48 The Pentagon reaffirmed Tuesday that the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) to South Korea… -
South Korea to withdraw some Ukraine embassy staff after POW rowUkraine has insisted that "diplomacy must prevail over emotions" in relations between the countries and that they consider "the situation resolved". SEOUL: South Korea's foreign ministry said Tuesday (Oct 20) it will withdraw some staff…
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293.4median
250340
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Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
185.8median
140230
Median 185.8Middle half 176.0 – 197.5
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.2median
160230
Median 197.2Middle half 189.8 – 202.7
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 27, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20262%
- Before Dec 1, 20265%
- Before Jan 1, 20278%
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20279%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 2
- Before Apr 1, 202718%
- Before May 1, 202719%▼ 2
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202731%
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202856%
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
22%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20268%▼ 4
- Before Jan 1, 202722%▲ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.