Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
99%chance
Install
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?
The odds
14%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 14% on Oct 20, 14% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 71.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: China, Taiwan
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Typhoon Champi roars towards Taiwan, Japan and China bringing heavy rain and windTaiwan is bracing for powerful Typhoon Champi, which is set to make landfall on Friday with gusts of up to 173 kph (107mph) and a 320km radius that will envelope the entire island Taiwanese authorities have urged people to stay away from… -
Taiwan tracks 13 Chinese ships | Taiwan News | Oct. 22, 2026 09:33Taiwan sends aircraft and naval vessels, deploys missile systems Oct. 22, 2026 09:33 TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Ministry of National Defense tracked six Chinese naval vessels and seven official ships between 6 a.m. on Wednesday and the… -
China says no gray zone on Taiwan questionCGTN China says no gray zone on Taiwan question There is no gray area on the Taiwan question, and the Philippine side should abide by the one-China principle with concrete actions, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on… -
Taiwan detects 3 Chinese naval vessels operating around its territoryTaipei [Taiwan], October 23 (ANI): Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) stated that it detected three Chinese naval vessels and seven official ships operating in the waters surrounding Taiwan up until 6 am (local time) on Thursday… -
Taiwan probes organised crime links to China's 'transnational repression'China's Taiwan Affairs Office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. It has not responded to previous questions on the assault on the comedian. Other China critics in Taiwan have also been attacked, including Hong Kong… -
Taiwan Detects Chinese Naval Vessels Near Its Shores, Military on AlertTaiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported the presence of three Chinese naval vessels and seven official ships operating in ... - Latest News. Find Breaking Headlines, Current and Latest international news at Lokmattimes.com Taiwan's… -
China is trying to impose its own rules around Taiwan's PratasOn 21 October, Zhang Han, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, said that the Chinese Coast Guard operating around the Pratas Islands in the South China Sea was lawfully… -
Taiwan probes organized crime links to China’s ‘transnational repression’TAIWAN SECURITY OFFICIAL. Taiwan National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen speaks to members of the media at the parliament in Taipei, Taiwan, October 22, 2026. TAIPEI, Taiwan – Taiwan is probing organized crime’s links to… -
China Tracks US Warship as Taiwan Reports Standoff in South China SeaChina has deployed naval forces to track a US warship near a disputed South China Sea shoal, while Taiwan reported a separate standoff with a Chinese coast guard vessel, escalating tensions across the strategic waterway. China’s military… -
Taiwanese Comedian’s Assault Case Raises Alarm Over China’s Transnational RepressionTaiwanese prosecutors have indicted five men accused of helping a Chinese national orchestrate an attack on comedian Huang Yi-hao in an alleged attempt to stop him from performing material mocking Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Huang, 44… - China accused of six tactics to interfere in Taiwans local electionsTaipei [Taiwan], October 22 (ANI): Taiwan’s National Security Bureau (NSB) has accused the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) of employing six tactics to influence Taiwan’s upcoming nine-in-one local elections, including allegedly using…
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China Compass | A tale of two National Days: China and Taiwan compete to be a model for the worldFirstpost On 30 September, Communist Party of China General Secretary and Peopleâs Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping delivered a speech to mark the 77th anniversary of the countryâs founding Across the Taiwan Strait, the…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.