How many Florida mail votes will be cast? (As of Nov 4, 2026)

Kalshi Elections Closes Nov 4 · $28 today · $6K traded · $1.8K at stake · prices read 51 min ago

The odds

1.82Mmedian

1.20M2.80M

Median 1.82MMiddle half 1.69M – 1.96M

How the odds have moved

Median: 1.88M on Oct 20, 1.82M now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
At least 1.4 million	99%		97¢		$1.02	3.9K
At least 1.6 million	93%	▲ 2	90¢	95¢	$1.05	1.3K
At least 1.8 million	55%	▲ 2	50¢	59¢	$1.69	878
At least 1.9 million	34%	▲ 4	30¢	38¢	$2.63	35.00
At least 2 million	19%	▲ 3	15¢	22¢	$4.55	163
At least 2.1 million	12%		8¢	16¢	$6.25	605
At least 2.2 million	10%	▲ 1	6¢	14¢	$7.14	870
At least 2.4 million	6%		3¢	9¢	$11.11	1.0K
At least 2.6 million	6%	▲ 1	3¢	8¢	$12.50	3.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Florida

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Florida’s new TrumpPOLITICO · 10 h agoThe unofficial guide to official Washington, every morning and weekday afternoons. By DASHA BURNS, WILL STEAKIN and ADAM WREN 10/23/2026 06:05 AM EDT With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner Happy Friday. As Election Day bears…
Trump casts his midterm ballot early in FloridaNBC News · 12 h agoWEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — President Donald Trump cast his ballot in the midterm elections Saturday, saying he voted for all Republicans in Florida before speaking at a Georgia rally. Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrived at their West…
Orthodox Jews flee NY for Florida amid rising antisemitismNew York Post · 19 h agoMore than 100 Orthodox Jewish families, fed up with rising antisemitism and political dysfunction in New York, are planning to join the 60 who already fled the state for a new community in Florida — only for far-right influencers to…
How social media clips can impact local elections in South FloridaCBS News · 16 h agoIn the era of social media, short clips posted online these can often spark conversations and debates ahead of elections. With the midterms just days away, we asked South Floridians their thoughts on how clips on social media impacts…
Effort to stop TV stations from running Hope Florida ad blockedCBS News · 17 h agoOctober 25, 2026 / 8:57 AM EDT / CBS Miami Attorney General James Uthmeier, the Republican Party of Florida and at least two state attorneys, threatened legal action – and possible criminal prosecution – if TV stations ran ads about the…
Florida attorney general pushes for fetal personhood and an end to all abortions in stateCBS News · 17 h agoOctober 25, 2026 / 9:07 AM EDT / CBS Miami In a video podcast with an anti-abortion activist released earlier this month, Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier boasted that he would "use every tool in his office" to eliminate abortion…
Free speech advocate responds after effort to stop TV stations from running Hope Florida ad blockedCBS News · 16 h agoCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 6am WBZ This Morning 8am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6am CBS Miami News Sunday Morning CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA News This Morning Sunday 8am
South Florida voters hit polls on first Saturday of early votingCBS News · 29 h agoCBS News Miami is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WFOR-TV and channel 4, CBS News Miami offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. South Florida voters hit…
Trump casts his midterm election ballot early in FloridaCNBC · 33 h agoPresident Donald Trump cast his ballot in the midterm elections Saturday, saying he voted for all Republicans in Florida before speaking at a Georgia rally. Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrived together at their West Palm Beach…
Susan MacManus sees working class voters continuing to change Florida’s landscapeSusan Macmanus. Image via Florida Politics.@Fla_Pol · 8 h agoPopulation growth during the COVID-19 pandemic may have upended Florida’s political landscape, and new voters continue to reshape it. According to University of South Florida Professor Emerita Susan MacManus, politicians who ignore recent…
Rep Jim Jordan commends ‘common sense conservative’ running in tight Florida districtFox News · 32 h agoGOP congressional candidate Mike Beltran and Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, discuss Republican momentum in Florida’s 14th district on ‘Fox Report.’ ... Rep Jim Jordan commends ‘common sense conservative’ running in tight Florida district GOP…
President says 'everything is good' as he casts early vote in FloridaFox News · 34 h agoPresident Donald Trump addressed reporters while entering the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections office with first lady Melania Trump on Saturday to vote. President says 'everything is good' as he casts early vote in Florida…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onUniversity of Florida Election Lab

Trading closesNov 4, 2026 9:59 AM ET

Traded$6K (12,501 contracts)

Today$28

This week$4.2K

At stake$1.8K

In the news48 headlines today, 922 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab is at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions