Will the EU's ETIAS accept applications before 2028?

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $11 traded · $10 at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

76%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 76% on Oct 19, 76% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	76%		72¢	80¢	$1.25	15.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: EU's ETIAS

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UK travellers warned not to apply yet for delayed EU EtiasThe Traveler · 12 days agoBritish travellers are being urged to ignore unofficial Etias application sites as the EU’s long delayed pre travel authorisation will not launch before late 2026. British holidaymakers heading to Europe are being advised not to apply yet…
New ETIAS EU travel document for Britons could now be delayed yet againMajorca Daily Bulletin · 18 days agoHumphrey Carter | Palma | 2026-10-07 15:25 While the argument over the success, or lack of, of the new EES Schengen area entry and exit visa which came into force earlier this year rumbles on, it looks like the European Union have another…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onEuropean Commission, European Commission ETIAS website

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$11 (15 contracts)

At stake$10

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) begins accepting applications from the public after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions