Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
99%chance
Install
When will Trump nominate someone to the Election Assistance Commission?
The odds
47%Before Jul 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 202722%
- Before Jul 1, 202747%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 23% on Oct 19, 22% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 3% | $33.33 | 549 | |||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 22% | 17¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 362 | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 47% | 42¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Assistance Commission
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Tazewell County Veterans Assistance Commission expanding its services and scopeThe Tazewell County Veterans Assistance Commission is expanding its program both this year and next. The agency is charged with helping veterans and their families access federal benefits and other resources. Superintendent CJ Pulcher… -
Kendall County VAC highlights importance of breast cancer screenings for veteransThe Kendall County Veterans Assistance Commission is encouraging veterans to get screened for breast cancer. Sara Gavin, with the commission, says veterans may require earlier screening and treatment for breast cancer because of factors… -
Henderson receives national award for accessible voting programLAS VEGAS (FOX5) — The city of Henderson has received a Democracy Award from the National Association of Election Officials for its ADA Concierge program, which is designed to make voting more accessible for people with disabilities. The… -
‘Medicare for All’ to ‘Take on Big Pharma’: What’s behind healthcare slogansHealthcare costs remain one of voters’ top economic concerns heading into the election. An Oct. 6 KFF Health Tracking Poll finds that 6 in 10 voters say they’re worried about affording healthcare, while nearly half say the cost of… -
Four face criminal charges in San Diego County amid sweeping federal voter fraud probeCalifornia-based U.S. officials announced Monday they have charged 28 green-card holders with fraudulent voter registration and other election-related crimes and arrested 11 of them in a coordinated effort “to combat and root out fraud in… - The DOJ is harassing California officials who are protecting the right to voteThe Trump administration is demanding, without evidence, the state review a 20,000-person list of “likely noncitizens.” This week the DOJ gave California officials 48 hours to review a list of 20,000 names, which the federal government…
- FBI Asks Voters to Report Suspected Election Crimes Before November MidtermsThe FBI released an advisory listing federal election offenses and telling voters how to report ballot fraud, threats and illegal donations. Voters in Lower Bucks and across the country are being asked to report suspected federal election…
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Commentary: Election outreach is public service, not politicsIsaac Cramer, executive director of the Charleston County Board of Elections and Voter Registration. At the Charleston County Board of Elections, our responsibility is to ensure all eligible voters have access to accurate, reliable… -
USPS postmarks can lag mailing dates. What taxpayers and voters should knowU.S. Postal Service postmark practices that were formalized in a December 2025 rule could mean a longer delay between when something is mailed and when it's postmarked — a distinction that matters for tax returns, mail-in ballots and other… -
What Happens to My Ballot After I Vote?What follows is an overview of how we get from voters casting ballots – early or on Election Day, in person or by mail – to a final determination of the winners of the contests on those ballots. 1. After Votes Are Cast According to… - Georgia Taps 4-Member Task Force on Voting Tech [2026]The table below summarizes the task force’s publicly known composition. Beyond the named members, the state’s election-security apparatus has been testing equipment and running scenario drills with input from career election officials, not…
- Raskin: Executive Branch Doesn't Have the Power to Compile List of Undocumented VotersRaskin: Executive Branch Doesn’t Have the Power to Compile List of Undocumented Voters Breitbart News Thursday on MS NOW’s “The Briefing,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) said the executive branch of government does not have the power “to compile…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.