Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes) (Before Nov 1, 2028)

Kalshi Elections › President 2028 Closes Oct 31, 2028 · $4.4K traded · $4K at stake · prices read 23 min ago

The odds

27%Rahm Emanuel

Rahm Emanuel27%
Ro Khanna12%
Pete Buttigieg10%
Gavin Newsom8%
Kamala Harris7%
Andy Beshear7%
Cory Booker2%
Mitch Landrieu2%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez1%
Jon Ossoff1%
J.B. Pritzker1%
Mark Kelly1%

21 more

James Talarico1%
Wes Moore1%
Josh Shapiro1%
Gretchen Whitmer1%
Jasmine Crockett1%
Graham Platner1%
Jon Stewart1%
Michelle Obama1%
Beto O'Rourke1%
Stephen A. Smith1%
Mark Cuban1%
Chris Murphy1%
Ruben Gallego1%
Elissa Slotkin1%
Raphael Warnock1%
Andrew Yang1%
Roy Cooper1%
Jared Polis1%
Amy Klobuchar1%
Elizabeth Warren1%
Gina Raimondo<1%

How the odds have moved

Rahm Emanuel: 28% on Oct 20, 27% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Rahm Emanuel	27%	27¢	35¢	$2.86	3.6K
Ro Khanna	12%	12¢	16¢	$6.25	2.8K
Pete Buttigieg	10%	8¢	16¢	$6.25	7.7K
Gavin Newsom	8%	7¢	11¢	$9.09	8.4K
Kamala Harris	7%	5¢	12¢	$8.33	6.3K
Andy Beshear	7%	7¢	10¢	$10.00	5.6K
Cory Booker	2%	1¢	4¢	$25.00	308
Mitch Landrieu	2%		4¢	$25.00	127
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	1%	1¢	2¢	$50.00	1.8K
Jon Ossoff	1%	1¢	2¢	$50.00	1.2K
J.B. Pritzker	1%	1¢	2¢	$50.00	3.0K
Mark Kelly	1%	1¢	2¢	$50.00	35.00
James Talarico	1%	1¢	2¢	$50.00	40.00
Wes Moore	1%		2¢	$50.00	2.6K
Josh Shapiro	1%		2¢	$50.00	3.3K
Gretchen Whitmer	1%		2¢	$50.00	500
Jasmine Crockett	1%		2¢	$50.00
Graham Platner	1%		2¢	$50.00	1.00
Jon Stewart	1%		2¢	$50.00
Michelle Obama	1%		2¢	$50.00
Beto O'Rourke	1%		2¢	$50.00
Stephen A. Smith	1%		2¢	$50.00	1.00
Mark Cuban	1%		2¢	$50.00
Chris Murphy	1%		2¢	$50.00
Ruben Gallego	1%		2¢	$50.00
Elissa Slotkin	1%		2¢	$50.00
Raphael Warnock	1%		2¢	$50.00	76.00
Andrew Yang	1%		2¢	$50.00	70.00
Roy Cooper	1%		2¢	$50.00
Jared Polis	1%		2¢	$50.00
Amy Klobuchar	1%		2¢	$50.00	46.00
Elizabeth Warren	1%		2¢	$50.00
Gina Raimondo	<1%		1¢	$100.00	63.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Democrat, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna

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Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson slams former Mayor Rahm Emanuel and his policiesCBS News · 22 h agoUpdated on: April 22, 2025 / 7:33 PM CDT / CBS Chicago Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson had scathing words Tuesday about not just President Trump, but also former Mayor Rahm Emanuel. Mayor Johnson blamed both men for Chicago's current…
Rahm Emanuel pleads for the Democratic Party to welcome more 'McCain-Romney Republicans'Fox News · 48 h agoFormer White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel pressed Democrats to include moderate Republicans in their coalition. (Getty Images) Former Obama White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel encouraged the Democratic Party to appeal to moderate…
Ro Khanna, eyeing the White House, tries to sell capitalism to the leftThe Washington Post · 2 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The California…
Photos: Dan Osborn holds town hall with U.S. Rep. Ro KhannaOmaha World-Herald · 12 h agoDan Osborn, nonpartisan candidate for U.S. Senate, holds town hall with U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna, at University of Nebraska at Omaha's Milo Bail Student Center. Javascript is required to use this website. Dan Osborn, nonpartisan candidate for…
France riots spark security review as Representative Ro Khanna blames tax cutsFox Business · 4 days agoCivil unrest sweeps through Paris as President Emmanuel Macron orders a security review following more than 2,400 arrests. Public News founder Michael Shellenberger joins 'Big Money in the Morning' to analyze the ongoing France riots and…
Ro Khanna Says Democrats Need Fewer Schumers And More ProgressivesIndiaWest News · 43 h agoNEW YORK, NY – Congressman Ro Khanna has criticized the Democratic Party’s leadership, declaring himself “a New Deal Democrat, not a Chuck Schumer Democrat” and calling for a party less beholden to big donors. Schumer, a Democrat from New…
Pete Buttigieg joins Ossoff in Atlanta rallyYahoo News · 20 h agoSen. Jon Ossoff and Pete Buttigieg launched an Avondale Estates canvass. "This election is our last best chance to at least rein in some of the foolishness of this administration," Obama said. President Donald Trump and first lady Melania…
Rep. Ro Khanna brings ‘Students for Solidarity’ tour to Reno.@KOLO8 · 34 h agoRENO, Nev. (KOLO) - U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) brought the national “Students for Solidarity” college tour to the University of Nevada, Reno, to engage young adults in voting and discuss economic and political reform. The tour has made…
Ro Khanna backs Nixon in Florida Senate race, criticizes Democratic leadershipDiya TV · 37 h agoNEW YORK (Diya TV) — Rep. Ro Khanna criticized Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer’s approach to party leadership while campaigning in Florida for Democratic Senate candidate Angie Nixon. “I am a New Deal Democrat, not a Chuck Schumer…
Rahm Emanuel’s Plan To Make Sure Democrats Lose In 2028Sirota · 3 days agoSirota | Substack Rahm Emanuel’s Plan To Make Sure Democrats Lose In 2028 Desperate to cast their do-nothing, pro-billionaire agenda as shrewd politics, Democratic elites pretend the key swing vote is country-club Republicans rather than…
Rahm Emanuel Is “Cautiously Optimistic” About the Democrats’ Midterm ProspectsThe New Yorker · 31 h ago“Trump’s Repudiation Is at Hand, Right?,” by Susan B. Glasser “How ICE Is Targeting the 2026 Midterms,” by Jonathan Blitzer “Can Justin J. Pearson Win in Tennessee?,” by Keeanga-Yamahtta Taylor “How Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Gave…
Ro Khanna to urge negotiators to pull U.S.-Israel cooperation provisions from defense billJewish Insider · 43 h agoThe letter, championed by the Caliifornia Democrat, currently has 30 Democratic co-signatories Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) on Capitol Hill on May 18, 2026, in Washington, DC. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) and a group of at least 30 Democratic colleagues…

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17%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

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Chris Murphy<1%
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Hunter Biden<1%
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Gina Raimondo<1%
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Pete Hegseth<1%
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Elissa Slotkin<1%
Adam Schiff<1%
Josh Stein<1%
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Candace Owens<1%
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Elections › President 2028

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

48.2median

46.557.5

Median 48.2Middle half 47.2 – 50.4

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onThe Washington Post, Ballotpedia, The Wall Street Journal

Trading closesOct 31, 2028 11:59 PM ET

Traded$4.4K (47,542 contracts)

At stake$4K

In the news174 headlines today, 2,362 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.