Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.1median
140230
Median 189.1Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
Install
Will the US take control of any part of Canada?
The odds
10%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 11% on Oct 20, 10% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 10¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 149.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Canada
Search ›-
Trump started a trade war with Canada. GOP candidates became casualties.Breaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. High tariffs on… -
Trump rolls back some Canada tariffs as midterm election approachesBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The Trump… -
Trump administration cancels some Canada tariffs, Sen. Susan Collins saysThe Trump administration has granted tariff exemptions on some Canadian products, Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who’s facing a tough re-election battle in Maine, said Friday. The move is an implicit acknowledgement that President Donald… -
Trump dropping some Canada tariffs but ‘replacing’ them with other productsThe U.S. will issue tariff exemptions on several categories of Canadian imports, Sen. Susan Collins announced Friday. Trump dropping some Canada tariffs but âreplacingâ them with other products -
Embattled Susan Collins announces exemptions for Maine from Trump Canada tariffsRepublican facing tough re-election battle in state where Trump’s trade war with neighbor has stirred outrage Susan Collins, the embattled Republican senator for Maine, announced that several industries crucial to her state would be… -
Trump to lower Canada tariffs for certain agricultural goods, Collins saysThe Maine senator said she was able to secure tariff exemptions for a number of Canadian imports her state's agriculture industry relies on, less than two weeks before the midterm election. Sen. Susan Collins speaks with reporters as she… -
Tracking Trump: Trump rolls back Canada tariffs; Melania Trump’s peace deal; Hegseth bans insider trading; and moreBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Trump rolled back some… -
Trump lifts 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods in boon to Maine Sen. Susan CollinsOctober 23, 2026 / 5:32 PM EDT / CBS News President Trump on Friday slashed tariffs on a handful of Canadian products that are used widely by Maine's agricultural industry, a move cheered by Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is facing a… -
In Canada: Summer Walker, Bebe Rexha to Accept Awards at Billboard Canada Women in Music 2026Also this week: Drake finances a new album for a Canadian rapper and Tate McRae's Victoria's Secret performance draws criticism. Billboard Canada has announced some more major global names for Billboard Canada Women In Music, where Cardi B… -
US ambassador softens accusations of Canadian interference in midtermsIn an interview, Ambassador Pete Hoekstra said the U.S. had not determined whether there had, in fact, been any interference by Canadian officials. Pete Hoekstra, then-candidate for U.S. ambassador to Canada, takes his seat for a Senate… -
The top 25 modern golf courses in Canada, rankedWelcome to the Golfweek's Best 2026 ranking of the top 25 modern golf courses in Canada. Golfweek for many years ranked Canadian courses, but during COVID there wasn't much movement on the lists of best modern and classic courses in the…
Related markets
All world leaders ›Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
293.4median
250340
Median 293.4Middle half 280.8 – 308.3
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.2median
160230
Median 197.2Middle half 189.8 – 202.7
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 27, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20262%
- Before Dec 1, 20265%
- Before Jan 1, 20278%
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20279%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 2
- Before Apr 1, 202718%
- Before May 1, 202719%▼ 2
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202731%
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202856%
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
17%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20268%▼ 4
- Before Jan 1, 202717%▼ 3
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
185.8median
140230
Median 185.8Middle half 176.0 – 197.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.