Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.1median
140230
Median 189.1Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
Install
When will Canada lower tariffs on the US?
The odds
Nov 19, 2026even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 202615%▼ 29
- Before Dec 1, 202675%
- Before Jan 1, 202780%
How the odds have moved
Before Nov 1, 2026: 27% on Oct 19, 15% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 24, 11 PM ETBefore Nov 1, 2026: 44% → 15%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 2.0K | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 15% | ▼ 29 | 10¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 758 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 75% | 14¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | 1.2K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 80% | 17¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 505 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: tariffs, tariff, Canada
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White House adds new tariffs on some Canadian importsCNBC's Eamon Javers reports on new tariffs that have been added to some Canadian imports after the White House removed tariffs that were affecting Maine. White House adds new tariffs on some Canadian imports -
Trump rolls back some Canada tariffs as midterm election approachesBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The Trump… -
Susan Collins Touts Canada Tariff Exemptions in Tight Maine Senate RaceOct 23, 2026 at 03:21 PM EDT Republican Senator Susan Collins announced Friday that U.S. tariffs will exempt nine categories of Canadian imports used by Maine agricultural businesses after she pressed the Trump administration for relief… -
Trump administration cancels some Canada tariffs, Sen. Susan Collins saysThe Trump administration has granted tariff exemptions on some Canadian products, Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who’s facing a tough re-election battle in Maine, said Friday. The move is an implicit acknowledgement that President Donald… -
Trump dropping some Canada tariffs but ‘replacing’ them with other productsThe U.S. will issue tariff exemptions on several categories of Canadian imports, Sen. Susan Collins announced Friday. Trump dropping some Canada tariffs but âreplacingâ them with other products -
Embattled Susan Collins announces exemptions for Maine from Trump Canada tariffsRepublican facing tough re-election battle in state where Trump’s trade war with neighbor has stirred outrage Susan Collins, the embattled Republican senator for Maine, announced that several industries crucial to her state would be… -
Trump to lower Canada tariffs for certain agricultural goods, Collins saysThe Maine senator said she was able to secure tariff exemptions for a number of Canadian imports her state's agriculture industry relies on, less than two weeks before the midterm election. Sen. Susan Collins speaks with reporters as she… -
White House says the US is lifting tariffs on some Canadian goodsThe US is lifting some of its 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, with the White House saying on Friday it was working to "protect the economic prosperity and national security of the American people". The exemptions could also boost Republican… -
Trump lifts 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods in boon to Maine Sen. Susan CollinsOctober 23, 2026 / 5:32 PM EDT / CBS News President Trump on Friday slashed tariffs on a handful of Canadian products that are used widely by Maine's agricultural industry, a move cheered by Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is facing a… -
U.S. dropping some Canada tariffs, Susan Collins says as trade war looms over Maine Senate raceSen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, announced today that nine categories of products crucial for Maineâs agricultural industries, including blueberry, potato, apple, and seaweed producers, will be exempted from U.S. tariffs on Canada. CNBC's… -
Collins says she secured Canada tariff exemptions for farmersSen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, says she has “secured additional tariff exemptions products crucial to Maine’s agricultural industries” as the Trump administration announces it has granted tariff exemptions on some Canadian imports. This… -
Trade tariffs cause whiplash at Port MilwaukeeSacha Pfeiffer visits Port Milwaukee to see how President Trump's tariffs have affected the flow of goods and impacted the regional economy. Trade tariffs cause whiplash at Port Milwaukee Sacha Pfeiffer visits Port Milwaukee to see how…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.