Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.1median
140230
Median 189.1Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
Install
Will Canada and the EU agree to expanded mobility rights? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
The odds
2%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 5% on Oct 19, 2% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Canada
Search ›-
Alberta Rejects Independence From CanadaOct 20, 2026 at 02:31 AM EDT Voters in Canada's Alberta province have overwhelmingly rejected a referendum to start the process toward independence, according to early results. With more than one million votes counted as of early Tuesday… -
Alberta voters weigh future in CanadaForever Canadian signs in front of a home in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, Sept. 28, 2026. John Diep/Bloomberg via Getty Images hide caption EDMONTON, Alberta — For decades, Alberta separatism remained on the political margins. Now, voters in… -
Why Alberta voters are weighing separating from CanadaCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Alberta voters set… -
Alberta voters reject move toward separation from Canada in referendumOctober 20, 2026 / 2:11 AM EDT / AP Voters in Canada's oil-rich province of Alberta have rejected a proposal to begin a process toward independence, results showed early Tuesday, delivering a victory for Prime Minister Mark Carney and… -
Alberta voters reject plan for referendum to leave Canada, CBC projectsProjection delivers a victory for prime minister Mark Carney and supporters of Canadian unity Voters in Canada’s Alberta have overwhelmingly rejected a proposal to begin a process toward independence, the national broadcaster CBC has… -
Alberta voters reject a move toward independence in referendum backing Canadian unityA voting location in Wainwright, Alberta, is seen on Monday, Oct. 19, 2026. Ty O'Neil/AP hide caption EDMONTON, Alberta — Voters in Canada's oil-rich province of Alberta have rejected a proposal to begin a process toward independence… -
Alberta voters decide whether to take a step toward separating from CanadaIn Canada, the oil-rich province of Alberta votes in a referendum that could set it on a path toward separation, as Prime Minister Mark Carney warns of threats to Canadian unity. Alberta voters decide whether to take a step toward… -
Jordin Canada Top Points vs. Golden State Valkyries10/19/2026 Yahoo Sports Jordin Canada Top Points vs. Golden State Valkyries, 10/19/2026 -
Alberta holds non-binding separation vote as independence fight grips CanadaCanadian Prime Minister Mark Carney addressed the Alberta separation vote on Oct 15 on a visit to the province. (Video: Associated Press.) OTTAWA: Residents of Alberta began voting Monday in a non-binding referendum that will determine… -
How have Canada closed gap to world champions England?Late Canada fightback ends Red Roses' unbeaten streak Forty-one matches, nearly four years and one Rugby World Cup triumph - but the Red Roses' unbeaten streak is over. It fell to the experienced Amy Cokayne to face the press this week… -
Canadian skateboarder sets new world record for speeding down hillCBS News Canadian skateboarder sets new world record for speeding down hill Chicago still accepting submissions for official 2026 Christmas tree FDA allowing food companies to switch to salt substitute More sunshine for Tuesday in Chicago… -
Canadian authorities seize nearly 280 pounds of cocaine at Ambassador BridgeOctober 20, 2026 / 7:16 AM EDT / CBS Detroit Two men were arrested by Canadian authorities after nearly 280 pounds of cocaine was found on a commercial truck making the border crossing at the Ambassador Bridge between Detroit and Windsor…
Related markets
All world leaders ›Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
293.4median
250340
Median 293.4Middle half 280.8 – 308.3
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.2median
160230
Median 197.2Middle half 189.8 – 202.7
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
185.8median
140230
Median 185.8Middle half 176.0 – 197.5
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 27, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20262%
- Before Dec 1, 20265%
- Before Jan 1, 20278%
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20279%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 2
- Before Apr 1, 202718%
- Before May 1, 202719%▼ 2
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202731%
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202856%
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
19%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20268%▼ 4
- Before Jan 1, 202719%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.