Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.5median
140230
Median 189.5Middle half 177.0 – 200.6
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Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?
The odds
Oct 23, 2027even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 202713%
- Before Jan 1, 202859%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 15% on Oct 20, 13% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 13% | 11¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 5.9K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 59% | ▲ 1 | 56¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 9.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Papua New Guinea, Bougainville
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Papua New Guinea vs Samoa LIVE: Rugby League World Cup - score & radio commentaryListen to BBC Radio 5 Sports Extra commentary as Papua New Guinea take on Samoa in the Rugby League World Cup in Port Moresby. Listen: Men's Rugby League World Cup - Papua New Guinea v Samoa Use the 'Listen live' icon at the top of the… -
‘Cut the umbilical cord’: Bougainville’s bid to break away from Papua New Guinea faces reckoningMPs in PNG to decide on ratifying a 2019 referendum in which Bougainvilleans voted overwhelmingly in favour of independence For decades, the distant island of Bougainville has fought for secession from Papua New Guinea, for a future as an… -
Capitalising on (in)security: Regulating Papua New Guinea’s security industryA tiny, cash-strapped agency funded by the firms it licenses can no longer keep up. A security guard checks customers entering a fortified shoe shop in the Western Highlands frontier town of Mount Hagen (Torsten Blackwood/AFP via Getty… -
Very strong mag. 6.2 Earthquake - New Guinea, Papua New Guinea, on Sunday, Oct 25, 2026, at 10:30 am (Universal Time) -Detailed info, map, data, reports, updates about this earthquake: Very strong mag. 6.2 earthquake - New Guinea, Papua New Guinea, on Sunday, Oct 25, 2026, at 10:30 am (Universal Time) - Look up quakes in: Very strong mag. 6.2 Earthquake… - Papua New Guinea v Samoa - Round 2, 2026The Kumuls and Samoa face off in Round 2 of the 2026 Rugby League World Cup Fiji v Papua New Guinea 2026 / Round 2 Fiji v Cook Islands Women's Rugby League World Cup New Zealand v Fiji 2026 / Round 1
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Australian Public Diplomacy and a National Rugby League Team in Papua New GuineaThe soft power, social capital, and shared stories the sport will stimulate are difficult to measure, but invariably will enhance the quality of the bilateral relationship. Underscoring the Australian Federal Government’s commitment of… -
Programme launched to support biodiversity finance in Papua New GuineaThe Conservation and Environment Protection Authority (CEPA) and UNDP Papua New Guinea have officially launched a programme to support the development of a Biodiversity Finance Plan for the country (BIOFIN) in Port Moresby this week… -
Mag. 4.4 earthquake - 19 km N of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea, on Friday, Oct 23, 2026, at 06:34 am (Universal Time) -Detailed info, map, data, reports, updates about this earthquake: Moderate mag. 4.4 earthquake - 19 km N of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea, on Friday, Oct 23, 2026, at 06:34 am (Universal Time) - Look up quakes in: Mag. 4.4 earthquake - 19… -
Papua New Guinea-Australia Telecommunications Partnership – Memorandum of Understanding and Telecommunications BlueprintThe MoU confirms Papua New Guinea and Australia’s shared commitment to Papua New Guinea’s digital development aspirations, noting the comprehensive nature of Australias telecommunications support, affirming Australia as Papua New Guinea’s… - Bougainville scars acknowledged as Papua New Guinea MPs near big decisionRNZ / News / Pacific Signs of the deep emotional scars from Bougainville's history have surfaced in Papua New Guinea's parliament as it debates whether to approve independence for the autonomous region. The national parliament has the…
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Strong mag. 5.0 Earthquake - Solomon Sea, 154 km south of Kokopo, East New Britain Province, Papua New Guinea, on Friday, Oct 23, 2026, at 06:05 am (GMT +10) -Detailed info, map, data, reports, updates about this earthquake: Strong mag. 5.0 earthquake - Solomon Sea, 154 km south of Kokopo, East New Britain Province, Papua New Guinea, on Friday, Oct 23, 2026, at 06:05 am (GMT +10) - Look up…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions