Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.3median
140230
Median 189.3Middle half 175.5 – 200.9
Install
Will Netanyahu be arrested?
The odds
4%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20261%
- Before Jan 1, 20274%
How the odds have moved
Before Nov 1, 2026: 2% on Oct 20, 1% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 5% | $20.00 | 65.2K | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 20.4K | ||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 34.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu
Search ›-
Benjamin Netanyahu: Israel's longest-serving PM fighting for survivalPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's consummate political survivor, is facing the fight of his life in Tuesday elections, drawing on over three decades of experience to convince voters he is still the only candidate capable of… -
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu visits Jerusalem market ahead of electionIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Jerusalem's Mahane Yehuda market, interacting with supporters and continuing his election campaign ahead of Israel's upcoming parliamentary vote. Accompanied by security personnel and… -
Former Israeli military chief, ex-PM: Benjamin Netanyahu’s top rivals in the Israeli electionsAs Israel heads to vote on October 27, a host of political figures, including an ex-prime minister and a former military chief, have positioned themselves as challengers seeking to replace Benjamin Netanyahu. While Israel votes for parties… - Benjamin Netanyahu faces trial in Turkey over interception of Gaza flotillaAn Istanbul court on Friday opened the trial of 35 Israelis, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir, over the…
- Is Benjamin Netanyahu the root cause of Israel's abysmal public relations record?Among the most cited stories I ever wrote for The Jerusalem Post was the series of polls taken during US president Barack Obama’s administration asking whether his policies were more pro-Israel or pro-Palestinian. In June 2019, only 6% of…
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Benjamin Netanyahu: Israel’s Longest-Serving PM Fights for Political SurvivalHis election campaign has leaned heavily on a single slogan, visible on posters throughout the country: \"Either the Right or Palestine.\" -
Israel Elections: ‘Not Getting Involved’ – US Vice President JD Vance Declines to Endorse Incumbent Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu in Surprising StanceIsrael Elections: US Vice President JD Vance has refused to endorse Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of the country’s upcoming general elections. Vance has said that he would prefer to not get involved and rather focus on the midterm elections in… -
Benjamin Netanyahu Signals Massive West Bank Operation After Hebron Attack — Days Before ElectionIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Friday that Israel is preparing a massive military operation in Judea and Samaria, also known as the West Bank, on a scale not seen since the 1967 Six-Day War, after Palestinian… -
Benjamin Netanyahu invites PM Modi, Smit Machchhar to light torch at Israeli Independence Day eventPrime Minister Narendra Modi and his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday discussed recent developments in West Asia, which have witnessed an escalation in hostilities in recent weeks, and emphasised the need to urgently… - Israel risks economic decline and international isolation under Benjamin NetanyahuRarely in democratic history has a negative election campaign been more justified than the one Israel’s opposition should be waging. Just: wow. This lamentable record cries out for a jackhammer negative campaign, but instead the opposition…
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Why a far-right cabinet minister in Israel has Netanyahu's earIsrael's most far-right cabinet minister helped dictate hardline policies toward Palestinians in recent years. Benjamin Netanyahu vows to give him a senior position if Netanyahu is reelected next week. Why a far-right cabinet minister in… -
Why Israel's election is a referendum on Benjamin NetanyahuNext week, Israelis vote for the first time since 7 October, the deadliest day in their country's history. Many here are describing it as the most consequential election since the State of Israel was founded in 1948. Naftali Bennett, a…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions