When will AP call the Alaska Senate election? (Nov 3, 2026 election)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Jan 4, 2027 · $3.6K today · $13.6K traded · $7.9K at stake · prices read 33 min ago

The odds

Nov 18, 2026even chance by

Before Nov 1434%▲ 14
Before Nov 1845%▼ 22
Before Nov 1996%▲ 15
Before Nov 2696%▲ 1
Before Jan 499%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Before Nov 14: 44% on Nov 4, 34% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Nov 11, 8 AM ETBefore Nov 14: 50% → 34%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Nov 6, 11 PM ETBefore Nov 14: 50% → 37%
- GOP alleges spoiler scheme in Alaska Senate raceFox Business · 5 days ago
- Alaska Senate race tightens as 'Decoy Dan' scandal remains under speculationFox News · 5 days ago
- FBI agents served an Alaska Senate candidate with a subpoena just days before election dayCNN · 5 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Nov 11	1%	▼ 3			$100.00	1.6K
Before Nov 14	34%	▲ 14	6¢	30¢	$3.33	8.5K
Before Nov 18	45%	▼ 22	51¢	63¢	$1.59	4.1K
Before Nov 19	96%	▲ 15	27¢	96¢	$1.04	5.0K
Before Nov 26	96%	▲ 1	92¢		$1.04	349
Before Jan 4	99%	▲ 1	97¢		$1.02	3.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Alaska Senate

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Peltola widens narrow Alaska Senate lead over Sullivan as counting continuesFox News · 18 h agoMidterm Elections Peltola widens narrow Alaska Senate lead over Sullivan as counting continues Monday night ballot drop expands margin from 637 votes to 2,517 as ranked-choice voting tabulation nears on Nov 18 By Eric Mack Fox News…
Mary Peltola’s campaign files lawsuit over Alaska Senate race absentee ballots — but judge predicts quick decisionNew York Post · 10 h agoPolitics Mary Peltola’s campaign files lawsuit over Alaska Senate race absentee ballots — but judge predicts quick decision By Associated Press Published Nov. 10, 2026, 10:48 p.m. ET See more of our coverage in your search results. A state…
Alaska Senate fight heats up as Sullivan moves to block Peltola lawsuit over rejected absentee ballot recordsFox News · 43 h agoThe Alaska Senate race remains undecided as Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola are separated by fewer than 700 votes. Finn and Dunleavy discuss the impact of same-name candidate Dan J. Sullivan, who received thousands…
Trump Claims Still-Uncalled Alaska Senate Race Is ’Rigged’Forbes · 24 h agoWith the Alaska Senate race uncalled and Mary Peltola narrowly leading Dan Sullivan, Trump alleges fraud. Trump Claims Still-Uncalled Alaska Senate Race Is ’Rigged’ President Donald Trump on Tuesday claimed the race for one of Alaska’s…
Mississippi, Alaska Senate races remain uncalled as affidavit, absentee ballots are counteWJAR · 13 h agoby The National News Desk Tue, November 10, 2026 at 7:41 PM5VIEW ALL PHOTOSJACKSON, MISSISSIPPI - NOVEMBER 4: District Attorney and U.S. Senate candidate for Mississippi Scott Colom speaks as he gives an update on state of Senate race…
Peltola leads Sullivan in Alaska Senate race as latest election results emergeYour Alaska Link · 14 h agoAnthony Wright Anthony Wright Director of Digital Content Author email Nov 9, 2026 Nov 9, 2026 Updated 23 mins ago Ian Stewart, Your Alaska Link New election results show several close races in Alaska, including the contest for U.S. Senate…
Mary Peltola Expands Lead in Alaska Senate Race Following Latest Vote CountYahoo News · 31 h agoLevi RickertTue, November 10, 2026 at 2:32 PM UTC1 min readMary Peltola's lead in Alaska Senate race has increased. (Photo/fFile) Native Vote 2026 Mary Peltola (Yup'ik) expanded her lead in Alaska's U.S. Senate race following the release…
Mary Peltola widens lead over Dan Sullivan in Alaska Senate race, but ranked-choice voting could decide winnerThe Economic Times · 30 h agoIn Alaska's Senate race, Mary Peltola is in a strong position, leading incumbent Dan Sullivan. Current vote counts reveal Peltola has amassed 106,321 votes, which translates to 48.6% of the overall votes. Sullivan, on the other hand, is…
Peltola widens lead over Sullivan as Alaska Senate race remains too close to callYour Alaska Link · 36 h agoFeatured Peltola widens lead over Sullivan as Alaska Senate race remains too close to call Trill Gates, Your Alaska Link Trill Gates Anchor Author email Nov 9, 2026 Nov 9, 2026 Updated 21 hrs ago Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola has widened…
Mary Peltola Expands Lead in Alaska Senate RacePolitical Wire · 22 h ago“Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) has expanded her lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) in her state’s competitive Senate contest,” The Hill reports. “The latest batch of votes to be counted reported Peltola leading by 2,517 first-choice…
Trump declares Alaska Senate race ‘OVER’ and claims Republican wonNew York Post · 4 days agoPresident Trump declared the Senate race in Alaska “over” and his favored candidate Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) the winner — even though the outcome of his race against former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) was far from certain. Trump has…
Why are Mississippi and Alaska Senate races taking so long to call?AOL.com · 2 days agoNearly a week after Election Day, it could still take several more days before the winners in the Mississippi and Alaska Senate races are known. Democratic candidates who are challenging incumbent Republicans in the two states are both…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onthe Associated Press

Trading closesJan 4, 2027 12:00 AM ET

Traded$13.6K (23,374 contracts)

Today$3.6K

This week$12K

At stake$7.9K

In the news6 headlines today, 185 this week

Followed here sinceNov 4, 2026

The rules

If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Search Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions