Next Senate Majority Leader?

Polymarket Elections › Senate Result pending · $176K today · $83K traded · $412K at stake · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

85%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer85%▼ 4
Chris Van Hollen13%▲ 4
Brian Schatz2%
John Thune<1%
John Barrasso<1%
Steve Daines<1%
Tom Cotton<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Mark Kelly<1%

How the odds have moved

Chuck Schumer: 93% on Nov 9, 85% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Chuck Schumer	85%	▼ 4	85¢	86¢	$1.16	$522K
Chris Van Hollen	13%	▲ 4	13¢	14¢	$7.19	$114K
Brian Schatz	2%		1¢	2¢	$43.48	$25.9K
John Thune	<1%			0¢		$41.9K
John Barrasso	<1%			0¢		$5.5K
Steve Daines	<1%			0¢		$26K
Tom Cotton	<1%			0¢		$9.5K
Amy Klobuchar	<1%			0¢		$8.9K
Patty Murray	<1%			0¢		$7K
Cory Booker	<1%			0¢		$8.4K
Mark Kelly	<1%			0¢		$5.7K
Lindsey Graham	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$55.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Senate Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer, Chris Van Hollen

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Bernie Sanders says he won’t support Chuck Schumer for Senate majority leaderNBC News · 15 h agoSens. Sanders and Elissa Slotkin called for new leadership, but neither proposed an alternative. Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland is considering challenging Schumer.Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., faces some opposition in…
The New Darling of the Left Is … Chris Van Hollen?Political Wire · 4 h agoNovember 11, 2026 · 5:29 am ET · “Progressive lawmakers and activists are hoping to harness momentum from last week’s sweeping Democratic victories to install inspiring new congressional leaders,” Politico reports. “Many have looked at the…
Chuck Schumer’s Future in Doubt as Momentum Grows for Chris Van HollenNewsweek · 41 h agoNov 09, 2026 at 11:31 AM EST Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer is facing a potentially serious challenge to his hold on power as momentum builds behind Chris Van Hollen, with the Maryland senator now reportedly open to a run for…
Major Labor Union Joins Calls to Reject Chuck Schumer as Democrats’ Senate Majority LeaderBreitbart · 21 h agoThe International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers is calling on Sen. Chuck Schumer to step down from Senate Democrat leadership in the latest blow to his bid to hold on to power. The labor union, which says it has 600,000…
Schumer Faces Pressure to Step Aside as Chris Van Hollen Hints at Run for Senate Majority LeaderDemocracy Now! · 33 h agoHeadlineNov 10, 2026Link copiedSenate Democrats could be headed for a leadership shakeup, after Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen indicated Monday he’s open to running for Senate majority leader when the new Congress convenes in January. A…
10 Reasons Chuck Schumer Should Not Be Senate Majority LeaderCommon Dreams · 24 h agoSenate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) speaks on the steps of the U.S. Senate during an event with congressional Democrats on May 21, 2026 in Washington, DC. Democrats have just won back control of Congress, delivering a major…
Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries are not meeting the momentThe Washington Post · 2 h agoBy Elizabeth Spiers, The NationFounded by abolitionists in 1865, The Nation has chronicled the breadth and depth of political and cultural life, serving as a critical, independent, and progressive voice.The big driver of turnout in the…
Bernie Sanders Says He Won't Back Schumer For Senate Majority LeaderYahoo News · 26 h agoSanjana KaranthUpdated Tue, November 10, 2026 at 8:31 PM UTC1 min readLike this article? Keep independent journalism alive. Support HuffPost. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said Tuesday that he will not be backing Senate Minority Leader Chuck…
Could Chuck Schumer Actually Get Booted From Leadership?townhall.com · 20 h agoThe left-wing pushback to the possibility of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) becoming majority leader looms over Washington, as Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) could take him on. A Tuesday email from the left-wing group…
Schiff makes calls on potential leadership bidsemafor.com · 19 h agoNov 10, 2026, 2:28pm ESTPostEmailWhatsappManuel Orbegozo/Reuters California Sen. Adam Schiff is calling up Democratic colleagues to express interest in serving in party leadership next Congress, according to a person close to Schiff. He…
BRUTAL! Bernie Sanders Delivers Reality Check To Chuck Schumer; Withdraws Support Amid Senate RaceThe Times of India · 14 h agoEditionININ US UK GCC EnglishEnglish हिन्दी मराठी ಕನ್ನಡ தமிழ் বাংলা മലയാളം తెలుగు ગુજરાતી WeatherSign InTOI News Videos News international News BRUTAL! Bernie Sanders Delivers Reality Check To Chuck Schumer; Withdraws Support Amid Senate…
Sen. Raphael Warnock won’t commit to backing Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader41NBC News | WMGT-DT · 18 h agoThe Georgia senator said Democrats are at an “inflection point” and he wants to hear from anyone in the caucus who believes they should lead. 16 hours ago 41NBC Web Producer, WASHINGTON (CNN) — Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock would not commit…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Listed endNov 3, 2026 11:59 PM ET · still trading until the result is in

Traded$83K

Today$176K

This week$83K

At stake$412K

In the news34 headlines today, 219 this week

Followed here sinceNov 8, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions