How much will be spent on political ads in the 2026 cycle?

Kalshi Elections Closes Jan 31, 2027 · $293 today · $293 traded · $293 at stake · prices read 11 h ago

The odds

11.92Bmedian
10.75B12.75B
Median 11.92BMiddle half 11.44B – 12.33B

How the odds have moved

Median: 11.66B on Nov 1, 11.92B now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Above 11 billion dollars 88% 83¢ 93¢ $1.08
Above 11.25 billion dollars 82% 77¢ 87¢ $1.15
Above 11.5 billion dollars 73% 71¢ 75¢ $1.33 401
Above 11.75 billion dollars 60% 55¢ 65¢ $1.54
Above 12 billion dollars 45% 40¢ 50¢ $2.00
Above 12.25 billion dollars 30% 25¢ 35¢ $2.86
Above 12.5 billion dollars 15% 10¢ 20¢ $5.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All elections ›
Elections › Senate

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

31%None
  • None31%▲ 6
  • IA10%▲ 1
  • IA, KS6%▼ 5
125 more
  • KS4%
  • All 73%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS3%▲ 1
  • AK, IA2%▲ 1
  • AK2%▲ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX2%▲ 1
  • ME2%
  • IA, ME1%
  • IA, KS, ME1%
  • OH1%
  • TX1%
  • IA, KS, TX1%
  • IA, TX1%
  • IA, OH1%
  • AK, KS1%
  • MI1%
  • IA, KS, ME, OH, TX1%
  • AK, IA, KS, OH1%
  • IA, KS, OH1%
  • AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, TX1%
  • AK, IA, KS, TX1%
  • IA, KS, ME, TX1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX1%
  • AK, IA, KS, OH, TX1%
  • IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1%
  • IA, KS, ME, OH1%
  • IA, KS, OH, TX1%
  • IA, KS, MI1%
  • KS, OH1%
  • IA, MI1%▼ 1
  • KS, TX1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME<1%
  • AK, KS, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
  • IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, ME<1%
  • AK, IA, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, TX<1%
  • IA, ME, MI<1%
  • AK, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
  • IA, ME, TX<1%
  • KS, ME<1%
  • IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
  • IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, MI<1%
  • AK, KS, ME<1%
  • IA, ME, OH<1%
  • IA, MI, OH<1%
  • IA, MI, TX<1%
  • IA, OH, TX<1%
PolymarketCloses tomorrow 6:59 PM ET · $13.6M today
Elections › President 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

18%JD Vance
  • JD Vance18%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12%
  • Gavin Newsom12%
52 more
  • Jon Ossoff11%▲ 1
  • Marco Rubio9%
  • Kamala Harris4%
  • Pete Buttigieg3%
  • Josh Shapiro3%
  • Ron DeSantis2%
  • James Talarico2%
  • Andy Beshear2%
  • Raphael Warnock2%▲ 1
  • Donald Trump1%
  • Tucker Carlson1%
  • Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
  • Mark Kelly1%
  • Wes Moore1%
  • Thomas Massie1%
  • JB Pritzker1%
  • Ro Khanna1%
  • Ivanka Trump1%
  • Donald Trump Jr.1%
  • Ted Cruz1%
  • Rahm Emanuel<1%
  • Gretchen Whitmer<1%
  • Glenn Youngkin<1%
  • Nikki Haley<1%
  • Elon Musk<1%
  • Michelle Obama<1%
  • Jamie Dimon<1%
  • Tulsi Gabbard<1%
  • Greg Abbott<1%
  • Tim Scott<1%
  • Stephen Smith<1%
  • Tim Walz<1%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
  • LeBron James<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Zohran Mamdani<1%
  • Eric Trump<1%
  • Pete Hegseth<1%
  • Jalen Brunson<1%
  • Abigail Spanberger<1%
  • Hakeem Jeffries<1%
  • Elissa Slotkin<1%
  • Adam Schiff<1%
  • Josh Stein<1%
  • Alex Padilla<1%
  • Candace Owens<1%
  • Mike Johnson<1%
  • Doug Burgum<1%
  • Tom Cotton<1%
  • John N. Kennedy<1%
  • Rick Scott<1%
  • James Fishback<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions