Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
66%Democrats Sweep
- Democrats Sweep66%
- R Senate, D House25%
- Republicans Sweep7%
2 more
- D Senate, R House1%
- Other<1%
Install
Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
The odds
87%Ted Cruz
- Ted Cruz87%
- J.D. Vance75%
- Ron DeSantis66%▲ 1
- Marco Rubio57%▲ 1
- Rand Paul51%
- Thomas Massie45%
- Glenn Youngkin37%▼ 1
- Chris Christie36%
- Brian Kemp35%
- Tulsi Gabbard30%
- Pete Hegseth28%▼ 1
- Gregory Bovino28%▼ 2
26 more
- Donald J. Trump Jr.28%
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders27%
- John McEntee26%
- Doug Burgum26%
- Vivek Ramaswamy25%▼ 1
- Tucker Carlson24%▲ 1
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.23%▼ 2
- Nikki Haley22%
- Steve Bannon22%
- Byron Donalds19%
- John Kennedy18%
- Greg Abbott17%▲ 2
- Donald J. Trump16%▲ 1
- Jeff Bezos15%▼ 1
- Marjorie Taylor Greene14%
- Spencer Pratt14%▼ 2
- Elise Stefanik14%▲ 1
- Josh Hawley14%▲ 1
- Erika Kirk13%
- Larry Hogan13%▲ 1
- Tim Scott12%▲ 1
- Jared Kushner11%
- Katie Britt11%
- John Thune6%
- Matt Gaetz4%
- Elon Musk3%
How the odds have moved
Ted Cruz: 82% on Oct 20, 87% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Cruz | 87% | 85¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 25.7K | |
| J.D. Vance | 75% | 74¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | 38.2K | |
| Ron DeSantis | 66% | ▲ 1 | 64¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 37.9K |
| Marco Rubio | 57% | ▲ 1 | 56¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | 50.4K |
| Rand Paul | 51% | 47¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 14.9K | |
| Thomas Massie | 45% | 43¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 15.6K | |
| Glenn Youngkin | 37% | ▼ 1 | 34¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | 10.7K |
| Chris Christie | 36% | 32¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 3.0K | |
| Brian Kemp | 35% | 33¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 952 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 30% | 26¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 9.8K | |
| Pete Hegseth | 28% | ▼ 1 | 26¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 8.6K |
| Gregory Bovino | 28% | ▼ 2 | 26¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 13.1K |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 28% | 25¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 38.6K | |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 27% | 24¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 5.4K | |
| John McEntee | 26% | 22¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 15.6K | |
| Doug Burgum | 26% | 21¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | ||
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 25% | ▼ 1 | 23¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 11.7K |
| Tucker Carlson | 24% | ▲ 1 | 23¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 62.9K |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 23% | ▼ 2 | 21¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 11.3K |
| Nikki Haley | 22% | 21¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 9.5K | |
| Steve Bannon | 22% | 21¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 9.4K | |
| Byron Donalds | 19% | 16¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 493 | |
| John Kennedy | 18% | 14¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 831 | |
| Greg Abbott | 17% | ▲ 2 | 15¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 7.0K |
| Donald J. Trump | 16% | ▲ 1 | 14¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 19.6K |
| Jeff Bezos | 15% | ▼ 1 | 13¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 4.8K |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 40.0K | |
| Spencer Pratt | 14% | ▼ 2 | 13¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 939 |
| Elise Stefanik | 14% | ▲ 1 | 13¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 1.1K |
| Josh Hawley | 14% | ▲ 1 | 11¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 23.1K |
| Erika Kirk | 13% | 12¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 5.8K | |
| Larry Hogan | 13% | ▲ 1 | 9¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 340 |
| Tim Scott | 12% | ▲ 1 | 8¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 151 |
| Jared Kushner | 11% | 10¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 1.0K | |
| Katie Britt | 11% | 7¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 830 | |
| John Thune | 6% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $10.87 | 807 | |
| Matt Gaetz | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | 3.6K | |
| Elon Musk | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $27.78 | 4.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ted Cruz, J.D. Vance, Ron DeSantis
Search ›-
Ron DeSantis Floats ‘Criminal Liability’ for AI ExecutivesOct 22, 2026 at 06:09 PM EDT Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said on Thursday he believes criminal liability may be “necessary” but “insufficient” in cases when artificial intelligence (AI) agents cause harm, after Axios reported on Thursday… -
Ted Cruz rallies with Rick Jackson with GOP anxious about voter turnoutU.S. Sen. Ted Cruz rallied with gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson in Henry County on Friday. Jackson plans to attend two separate weekend rallies alongside Donald Trump and Gov. Brian Kemp. Republicans are expressing concern over… -
Georgetown Law student association denounces Ted Cruz staffer over Muslim Brotherhood lectureThe association passed a resolution accusing Erielle Azerrad of Islamophobia after she appeared on campus to discuss the Muslim Brotherhood and her work representing victims of terrorism Bill O'Leary/The Washington Post via Getty Images A… -
President Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Deliver Brief Media Remarks from Fort Myers AirportFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis traveled to Regional Southwest airport in Fort Myers to welcome President Trump who is holding a midterm MAGA rally in the region. President Trump and Governor DeSantis delivered quick remarks. The video is… -
Gov Ron DeSantis: Do not sleep on FloridaFox News Gov Ron DeSantis: Do not sleep on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., discusses the upcoming midterm elections on 'Hannity.' -
Ron DeSantis Gave Trump Bonkers Gold Coin Reading ‘You Missed B*tches’The coin also features an engraved image of Trump “flipping the bird.” NEW: Gov. Ron DeSantis gifted POTUS a custom gold coin upon his arrival to Florida. Asked the President to come show it to us… — Christian Datoc (@TocRadio) October 23… -
SEE IT: Ron Desantis Gifts President Trump Profane Assassination Coin To Welcome Him Back Home To FloridaAh, Ron DeSantis….it’s been a long time. Not really long enough if you ask me, this guy creeps me out every time I have to listen to him talk, he just makes my skin crawl. I don’t ACTUALLY think he’s a creep, he just creeps me out with… -
President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance coming to Corpus ChristiCORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — The top two leaders of the United States are coming to Corpus Christi next week. Initially, President Donald Trump had plans to visit Waco, Texas, on Tuesday, Oct. 27, as part of last-minute campaigns leading to the… - Florida governor Ron DeSantis urges states to stop hiring foreign workers through H-1B visa program at universitiesFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has urged other US states to stop hiring foreign workers through the H-1B visa program at public universities, arguing that such hiring comes at the expense of young American graduates struggling to find jobs…
-
WATCH: Gov. Ron DeSantis Hosts Roundtable in Support of Amendment 3 Property Tax ReliefGovernor Ron DeSantis hosted a roundtable in Miami to reaffirm his commitment to providing meaningful property tax relief to Floridians and build support for Amendment 3, a proposed constitutional amendment that would expand homestead… -
Ted Cruz’s college sports win could be a loss for Texas footballSen. Ted Cruz watched from the sidelines during the Nov. 28, 2025 SEC football game between the Longhorns and the Aggies. Cruz's Protect College Sports Act could shift money toward Texas Tech, narrowing the financial advantage enjoyed by…
Related markets
All president 2028 ›Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
17%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%▲ 1
- Gavin Newsom17%
- Jon Ossoff16%
50 more
- Kamala Harris7%
- Josh Shapiro5%
- Pete Buttigieg5%
- Andy Beshear3%
- James Talarico3%
- Wes Moore2%
- Raphael Warnock2%
- Mark Kelly2%
- Rahm Emanuel2%
- Bernie Sanders1%
- Ro Khanna1%
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
- J.B. Pritzker1%
- Chelsea Clinton1%
- Cory Booker1%
- Gretchen Whitmer1%
- Michelle Obama1%
- Jon Stewart1%
- Roy Cooper<1%
- Chris Murphy<1%
- Ruben Gallego<1%
- Mark Cuban<1%
- Barack Obama<1%
- Hillary Clinton<1%
- Hunter Biden<1%
- Chris Van Hollen<1%
- Stephen A. Smith<1%
- Gina Raimondo<1%
- Zohran Mamdani<1%
- Jared Polis<1%
- Phil Murphy<1%
- Jasmine Crockett<1%
- Abigail Spanberger<1%
- Hakeem Jeffries<1%
- Elissa Slotkin<1%
- Josh Stein<1%
- Mitch Landrieu<1%
- LeBron James<1%
- Tim Walz<1%
- John Fetterman<1%
- Liz Cheney<1%
- George Clooney<1%
- MrBeast<1%
- Oprah Winfrey<1%
- Andrew Yang<1%
- Beto O’Rourke<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Graham Platner<1%
- Adam Schiff<1%
- Alex Padilla<1%
Presidential Election Winner 2028
21%JD Vance
- JD Vance21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Gavin Newsom11%▲ 1
51 more
- Jon Ossoff9%
- Marco Rubio9%
- Kamala Harris4%
- Josh Shapiro3%
- Pete Buttigieg3%
- Ron DeSantis2%▼ 1
- Andy Beshear2%
- James Talarico2%
- Donald Trump1%
- Tucker Carlson1%
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
- Mark Kelly1%
- Raphael Warnock1%
- Wes Moore1%
- Thomas Massie1%
- Ro Khanna1%
- JB Pritzker1%
- Ivanka Trump1%
- Donald Trump Jr.1%
- Ted Cruz1%
- Rahm Emanuel1%
- Gretchen Whitmer<1%
- Jamie Dimon<1%
- Glenn Youngkin<1%
- Tulsi Gabbard<1%
- Greg Abbott<1%
- Elon Musk<1%
- Michelle Obama<1%
- Stephen Smith<1%
- Nikki Haley<1%
- Tim Walz<1%
- Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
- LeBron James<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Zohran Mamdani<1%
- Eric Trump<1%
- Pete Hegseth<1%
- Jalen Brunson<1%
- Abigail Spanberger<1%
- Hakeem Jeffries<1%
- Elissa Slotkin<1%
- Adam Schiff<1%
- Josh Stein<1%
- Alex Padilla<1%
- Candace Owens<1%
- Tim Scott<1%
- Mike Johnson<1%
- Doug Burgum<1%
- Tom Cotton<1%
- John N. Kennedy<1%
- Rick Scott<1%
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
44%J.D. Vance
- J.D. Vance44%
- Marco Rubio16%▲ 1
- Ron DeSantis3%
40 more
- Tucker Carlson3%
- Ted Cruz2%
- Donald Trump2%
- Donald Trump Jr.2%
- Ivanka Trump1%
- Thomas Massie1%
- Brian Kemp1%
- Pete Hegseth<1%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%
- Josh Hawley<1%
- Rand Paul<1%
- Marjorie Taylor Greene<1%
- Tom Cotton<1%
- Glenn Youngkin<1%
- Greg Abbott<1%
- Katie Britt<1%
- Candace Owens<1%
- Eric Trump<1%
- Tulsi Gabbard<1%
- Nikki Haley<1%
- Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
- Byron Donalds<1%
- Elise Stefanik<1%
- Elon Musk<1%
- Kristi Noem<1%
- Mike Pence<1%
- Steve Bannon<1%
- Joe Kent<1%
- Doug Burgum<1%
- John N. Kennedy<1%
- John McEntee<1%
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders<1%
- Matt Gaetz<1%
- John Thune<1%
- Tom Brady<1%
- Erika Kirk<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Tim Scott<1%
- Mike Johnson<1%
- Rick Scott<1%
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
48.2median
46.557.5
Median 48.2Middle half 47.2 – 50.4
Which party will win the House in 2026?
92%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party92%
- Republican Party9%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.