Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
66%Democrats Sweep
- Democrats Sweep66%
- R Senate, D House25%
- Republicans Sweep7%
2 more
- D Senate, R House1%
- Other<1%
Install
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
The odds
91%Pete Buttigieg
- Pete Buttigieg91%
- Andy Beshear86%
- Rahm Emanuel84%▼ 1
- J.B. Pritzker81%▼ 1
- Ro Khanna80%
- Gavin Newsom78%
- Josh Shapiro77%▼ 1
- Wes Moore77%
- Cory Booker75%▲ 2
- Mark Kelly71%▼ 4
- Chris Murphy66%
- Kamala Harris65%
26 more
- Mitch Landrieu64%
- Chris Van Hollen63%▼ 1
- Elissa Slotkin61%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez60%▼ 3
- Jon Ossoff60%▲ 3
- Raphael Warnock55%
- Ruben Gallego46%
- Jared Polis38%
- Phil Murphy33%▲ 1
- Shawn Fain33%
- Gretchen Whitmer30%
- Dean Phillips25%
- Mikie Sherrill24%
- Stephen A. Smith21%▼ 2
- Abigail Spanberger21%
- Hunter Biden15%
- Mark Cuban14%▲ 2
- Roy Cooper13%
- John Fetterman13%
- Jon Stewart13%
- James Talarico11%
- Michelle Obama8%
- Tim Walz7%
- Amy Klobuchar7%
- Hillary Clinton4%
- Barack Obama3%
How the odds have moved
Pete Buttigieg: 90% on Oct 20, 91% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Buttigieg | 91% | 90¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 11.7K | |
| Andy Beshear | 86% | 85¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 7.7K | |
| Rahm Emanuel | 84% | ▼ 1 | 83¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 32.1K |
| J.B. Pritzker | 81% | ▼ 1 | 80¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 16.8K |
| Ro Khanna | 80% | 79¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | 38.8K | |
| Gavin Newsom | 78% | 77¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 69.5K | |
| Josh Shapiro | 77% | ▼ 1 | 76¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 12.1K |
| Wes Moore | 77% | 74¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 63.6K | |
| Cory Booker | 75% | ▲ 2 | 72¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 19.4K |
| Mark Kelly | 71% | ▼ 4 | 69¢ | 73¢ | $1.37 | 27.6K |
| Chris Murphy | 66% | 63¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | 2.4K | |
| Kamala Harris | 65% | 64¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 158.6K | |
| Mitch Landrieu | 64% | 61¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 1.7K | |
| Chris Van Hollen | 63% | ▼ 1 | 60¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 9.3K |
| Elissa Slotkin | 61% | 59¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 26.7K | |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 60% | ▼ 3 | 58¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | 160.9K |
| Jon Ossoff | 60% | ▲ 3 | 59¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 41.9K |
| Raphael Warnock | 55% | 52¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | 10.9K | |
| Ruben Gallego | 46% | 44¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 40.0K | |
| Jared Polis | 38% | 37¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 9.9K | |
| Phil Murphy | 33% | ▲ 1 | 32¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 2.8K |
| Shawn Fain | 33% | 31¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 27.00 | |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 30% | 28¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 44.6K | |
| Dean Phillips | 25% | 21¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 6.1K | |
| Mikie Sherrill | 24% | 23¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 1.5K | |
| Stephen A. Smith | 21% | ▼ 2 | 19¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 37.5K |
| Abigail Spanberger | 21% | 19¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 17.9K | |
| Hunter Biden | 15% | 14¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 39.2K | |
| Mark Cuban | 14% | ▲ 2 | 12¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 18.1K |
| Roy Cooper | 13% | 12¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 9.1K | |
| John Fetterman | 13% | 10¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 7.0K | |
| Jon Stewart | 13% | 11¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 15.7K | |
| James Talarico | 11% | 10¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 2.6K | |
| Michelle Obama | 8% | 7¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 10.3K | |
| Tim Walz | 7% | 4¢ | 9¢ | $11.49 | 40.3K | |
| Amy Klobuchar | 7% | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 870 | |
| Hillary Clinton | 4% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $19.61 | 3.7K | |
| Barack Obama | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $21.74 | 2.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel
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Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson slams former Mayor Rahm Emanuel and his policiesUpdated on: April 22, 2025 / 7:33 PM CDT / CBS Chicago Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson had scathing words Tuesday about not just President Trump, but also former Mayor Rahm Emanuel. Mayor Johnson blamed both men for Chicago's current… -
Rahm Emanuel pleads for the Democratic Party to welcome more 'McCain-Romney Republicans'Former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel pressed Democrats to include moderate Republicans in their coalition. (Getty Images) Former Obama White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel encouraged the Democratic Party to appeal to moderate… -
Pete Buttigieg joins Ossoff in Atlanta rallySen. Jon Ossoff and Pete Buttigieg launched an Avondale Estates canvass. "This election is our last best chance to at least rein in some of the foolishness of this administration," Obama said. President Donald Trump and first lady Melania… -
Pete Buttigieg to rally with Scott Colom on Mississippi Coast next weekBILOXI, Miss. – Former U.S. Transportation Secretary and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is scheduled to visit the Mississippi Gulf Coast next week for a campaign rally with Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Scott Colom. According… -
Rahm Emanuel’s Plan To Make Sure Democrats Lose In 2028Sirota | Substack Rahm Emanuel’s Plan To Make Sure Democrats Lose In 2028 Desperate to cast their do-nothing, pro-billionaire agenda as shrewd politics, Democratic elites pretend the key swing vote is country-club Republicans rather than… - 2009 WARNING: Rahm Emanuel Recalls Telling Netanyahu Judea and Samaria Housing Policies Would Leave Israel IsolatedFormer Obama White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel recalled warning Prime Minister Netanyahu in 2009 that Israeli housing policies in Judea and Samaria would lead to Israel’s “political isolation” and “perpetual conflict.” 2009 WARNING…
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Rahm Emanuel: 'We're at a Tipping Point, There Is No Reset Button' for Israel-U.S. RelationsIn this episode of the Haaretz podcast, Rahm Emanuel – former White House chief-of-staff, veteran Democratic party insider, and potential presidential hopeful – speaks with guest host Joshua Leifer about the future of the U.S.-Israel… -
Rahm Emanuel Is “Cautiously Optimistic” About the Democrats’ Midterm Prospects“Trump’s Repudiation Is at Hand, Right?,” by Susan B. Glasser “How ICE Is Targeting the 2026 Midterms,” by Jonathan Blitzer “Can Justin J. Pearson Win in Tennessee?,” by Keeanga-Yamahtta Taylor “How Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Gave… -
Pete Buttigieg to campaign with Pia Dandiya in CD 22Buttigieg, who served as Transportation Secretary under President Joe Biden, will appear with Dandiya in Plantation for a canvassing launch. Dandiya is running in the battleground Florida’s 22nd Congressional District against Republican… -
Pete Buttigieg rallies for Virginia Dems: ‘We have the right kind of leaders to carry us forward’The former Democratic presidential candidate and Biden administration Cabinet secretary urged voters to help Democrats in three competitive races in Virginia. Excited voters crowded into the Henrico Theatre outside Richmond on Oct. 19 to… -
Pete Buttigieg rallies with Taylor, Luria, PerrielloPete Buttigieg, a former U.S. transportation secretary and presidential candidate, took the stage at the Henrico Theatre on Monday to rally Virginia Democrats ahead of next month’s midterm elections. Joining Buttigieg were 1st District… -
"The Angle:" In depth with former Mayor Rahm Emanuel, State's Atty. Eileen BurkePolitical Reporter Chris Tye recently sat down with Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel to talk about the state of the city and other issues, and Cook County State’s Attorney Eileen Burke, who talked about the problems with the county’s…
Related markets
All president 2028 ›Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
17%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%▲ 1
- Gavin Newsom17%
- Jon Ossoff16%
50 more
- Kamala Harris7%
- Josh Shapiro5%
- Pete Buttigieg5%
- Andy Beshear3%
- James Talarico3%
- Wes Moore2%
- Raphael Warnock2%
- Mark Kelly2%
- Rahm Emanuel2%
- Bernie Sanders1%
- Ro Khanna1%
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
- J.B. Pritzker1%
- Chelsea Clinton1%
- Cory Booker1%
- Gretchen Whitmer1%
- Michelle Obama1%
- Jon Stewart1%
- Roy Cooper<1%
- Chris Murphy<1%
- Ruben Gallego<1%
- Mark Cuban<1%
- Barack Obama<1%
- Hillary Clinton<1%
- Hunter Biden<1%
- Chris Van Hollen<1%
- Stephen A. Smith<1%
- Gina Raimondo<1%
- Zohran Mamdani<1%
- Jared Polis<1%
- Phil Murphy<1%
- Jasmine Crockett<1%
- Abigail Spanberger<1%
- Hakeem Jeffries<1%
- Elissa Slotkin<1%
- Josh Stein<1%
- Mitch Landrieu<1%
- LeBron James<1%
- Tim Walz<1%
- John Fetterman<1%
- Liz Cheney<1%
- George Clooney<1%
- MrBeast<1%
- Oprah Winfrey<1%
- Andrew Yang<1%
- Beto O’Rourke<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Graham Platner<1%
- Adam Schiff<1%
- Alex Padilla<1%
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
44%J.D. Vance
- J.D. Vance44%
- Marco Rubio16%▲ 1
- Ron DeSantis3%
40 more
- Tucker Carlson3%
- Ted Cruz2%
- Donald Trump2%
- Donald Trump Jr.2%
- Ivanka Trump1%
- Thomas Massie1%
- Brian Kemp1%
- Pete Hegseth<1%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%
- Josh Hawley<1%
- Rand Paul<1%
- Marjorie Taylor Greene<1%
- Tom Cotton<1%
- Glenn Youngkin<1%
- Greg Abbott<1%
- Katie Britt<1%
- Candace Owens<1%
- Eric Trump<1%
- Tulsi Gabbard<1%
- Nikki Haley<1%
- Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
- Byron Donalds<1%
- Elise Stefanik<1%
- Elon Musk<1%
- Kristi Noem<1%
- Mike Pence<1%
- Steve Bannon<1%
- Joe Kent<1%
- Doug Burgum<1%
- John N. Kennedy<1%
- John McEntee<1%
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders<1%
- Matt Gaetz<1%
- John Thune<1%
- Tom Brady<1%
- Erika Kirk<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Tim Scott<1%
- Mike Johnson<1%
- Rick Scott<1%
Presidential Election Winner 2028
21%JD Vance
- JD Vance21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Gavin Newsom11%▲ 1
51 more
- Jon Ossoff9%
- Marco Rubio9%
- Kamala Harris4%
- Josh Shapiro3%
- Pete Buttigieg3%
- Ron DeSantis3%▼ 1
- Andy Beshear2%
- James Talarico2%
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2%
- Donald Trump1%
- Tucker Carlson1%
- Mark Kelly1%
- Raphael Warnock1%
- Wes Moore1%
- Thomas Massie1%
- Ro Khanna1%
- JB Pritzker1%
- Ivanka Trump1%
- Donald Trump Jr.1%
- Ted Cruz1%
- Rahm Emanuel1%
- Gretchen Whitmer<1%
- Jamie Dimon<1%
- Glenn Youngkin<1%
- Tulsi Gabbard<1%
- Greg Abbott<1%
- Elon Musk<1%
- Michelle Obama<1%
- Stephen Smith<1%
- Nikki Haley<1%
- Tim Walz<1%
- Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
- LeBron James<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Zohran Mamdani<1%
- Eric Trump<1%
- Pete Hegseth<1%
- Jalen Brunson<1%
- Abigail Spanberger<1%
- Hakeem Jeffries<1%
- Elissa Slotkin<1%
- Adam Schiff<1%
- Josh Stein<1%
- Alex Padilla<1%
- Candace Owens<1%
- Tim Scott<1%
- Mike Johnson<1%
- Doug Burgum<1%
- Tom Cotton<1%
- John N. Kennedy<1%
- Rick Scott<1%
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
48.2median
46.557.5
Median 48.2Middle half 47.2 – 50.4
Which party will win the House in 2026?
92%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party92%
- Republican Party9%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.