2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

Kalshi Elections › President 2028 For Nov 7, 2028 · $1.6K traded · $897 at stake · prices read 28 min ago

The odds

-26.6median
-538538
Median -26.6Middle half -96.5 – 56.7

How the odds have moved

Median: -23.9 on Oct 20, -26.6 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Democratic by 211 or more 6% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 3.1K
Democratic by 131 to 210 8% 7¢ 8¢ $12.50 2.0K
Democratic by 91 to 130 13% 12¢ 13¢ $7.69 1.9K
Democratic by 61 to 90 12% 11¢ 12¢ $8.33 1.1K
Democratic by 31 to 60 10% 9¢ 10¢ $10.00 691
Democratic by 11 to 30 6% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 2.1K
Democratic by 1 to 10 5% 4¢ 5¢ $20.00 2.5K
Republican by 1 to 10 4% 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 2.9K
Republican by 11 to 30 6% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 1.1K
Republican by 31 to 60 7% 6¢ 7¢ $14.29 482
Republican by 61 to 90 9% 8¢ 9¢ $11.11 1.9K
Republican by 91 to 130 8% 7¢ 8¢ $12.50 1.9K
Republican by 131 to 210 4% 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 1.1K
Republican by 211 or more 4% 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 2.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Electoral College

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