Israel Election: Yashar vote share?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes tomorrow 7:59 PM ET · $764 today · $10.9K traded · $1.3K at stake · prices read 25 min ago

The odds

17.99%median

14%26%

Median 17.99%Middle half 16.34% – 20.4%

How the odds have moved

Median: 17.3% on Oct 20, 17.99% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
<16%	20%	▼ 18	11¢	28¢	$3.57	$1.7K
16-18%	30%	▲ 12	11¢	49¢	$2.05	$848
18-20%	20%	▼ 9	17¢	22¢	$4.55	$2.7K
20-22%	25%		21¢	27¢	$3.70	$3.2K
22-24%	3%	▼ 2	1¢	5¢	$20.00	$468
24%+	2%		1¢	3¢	$30.30	$2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu

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Will Benjamin Netanyahu Win Israel Election? What Polls ShowNewsweek · 11 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 07:50 AM EDT Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will struggle to retain power, according to latest polling ahead of his first electoral test since the October 2023 Hamas-led attacks and the subsequent conflicts in…
Israel's Central Bank Rebukes Netanyahu Plan to Use Crypto to Dodge SanctionsDecrypt · 11 h agoIsrael's central bank has rejected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's suggestion that cryptocurrency could help the country get around potential international sanctions, in a rare public rebuke days before Tuesday's national election…
What to know about the Israeli elections as Netanyahu faces a battle for survivalNBC News · 12 h agoMorning Rundown: Israel’s first election since Oct. 7 attacks, key midterm ballot measures to watch, and Chris Brown sentenced over London nightclub brawl TEL AVIV — After three years of navigating war, crisis and global outcry, Israeli…
Israelis set to decide whether Netanyahu still deserves to lead after Oct. 7 attacksNew York Post · 14 h agoTEL AVIV — Should Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu be punished for the Oct. 7, 2023 terrorist attack — or is he, in fact, the strongest person to protect the Jewish state during its multi-front war? That is perhaps the central issue when…
Israel’s furious Arab parties could oust Netanyahu — if the opposition will break an election promiseNew York Post · 13 h agoIsraeli-Arabs could sway the balance of power in Israel’s general elections next week as the country’s two major parties are predicted to fall short of a majority in the Knesset. Nearly all of Israel’s polls ahead of Tuesday’s election…
Anti-Israel agitators smash signs of Seinfeld, NetanyahuFox News · 27 h agoA group of people protested outside Jerry Seinfeld's Washington, D.C. show. They chanted, used vulgar language and violently smashed posters of the comedian and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Anti-Israel agitators smash signs of Seinfeld…
American Jews who fled to Israel over rising antisemitism could prove decisive for Netanyahu’s futureNew York Post · 13 h agoJERUSALEM — Thousands of Americans Jews who fled to Israel amid rising antisemitism in the US could be pivotal in Tuesday’s national election — and most of them appear to be breaking for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, observers say. An…
Israel election tests Netanyahu's rule amid Gaza war falloutIndia Today · 16 h agoIsrael will hold parliamentary elections on Tuesday, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeking to remain in power amid debate over his government's handling of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, the wars that followed, and its…
Israel Polls: Netanyahu Faces Eisenkot Challenge Amid Gaza War, Cost of LivingIndia Today · 13 h agoIsrael heads into a crucial parliamentary election for the 26th Knesset, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fighting to retain power amid significant security, political, and economic challenges. Netanyahu faces a major challenge from…
This center-right former general could unseat Netanyahu as Prime Minister in IsraelNPR · 26 h agoA former Israeli general is the main center-right challenger hoping to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israeli elections this week. This center-right former general could unseat Netanyahu as Prime Minister in Israel A former…
Netanyahu delays Gaza security plans until after Israeli electionYeni Şafak English · 17 h agoIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has postponed critical security and administrative arrangements for the Gaza Strip until after the Oct. 27 election, shelving plans for an international stabilization force and the training of…
Trump Backs Netanyahu Ahead Of Israel Polls As Gaza War & Iran Threat LoomIndia Today · 21 h agoUnited States President Donald Trump has publicly endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of Israel's parliamentary elections, urging Israelis to vote for him. Trump described Netanyahu as an outstanding warrior prime…

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Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

22.3median

1639

Median 22.3Middle half 19.7 – 26.5

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onbechirot.gov.il

Trading closesOct 27, 2026 7:59 PM ET

Traded$10.9K

Today$764

This week$3K

At stake$1.3K

In the news548 headlines today, 4,396 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all v

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions